Nov. 8, 2006
The Bottom Line - Week 10
By Chris Kelly
Dan Carpenter's kicked a 21-yard field goal with just five seconds on the clock to lift the Grizzlies to a 10-9 win over Cal Poly on Saturday afternoon. The Grizzlies, who offense has been bottles up all game, went on a 76 yard drive to set up the winning kick. The drive came just after Mustang kicker Nick Coromelas hit his third field goal of the game to give the Mustangs the lead, 9-6. Cal Poly, held to just 292 yards of offense, took a 6-0 lead before a 27-yard Josh Swogger pass gave the Grizzlies their first lead. Cal Poly held Montana to just 290 yards of total offense.
CK's Take: The game was the defensive slugfest you would expect from two teams the caliber of the Mustangs and Grizzlies. Neither team got to the 300 yards mark. Neither team ran it particularly well. (James Noble 61 yards, 23 carries) Montana quarterback, Josh Swogger threw for 161 yards but completed just 12 of 30 passes to do that. With Montana taking Noble completely out of commission, the positive sign was the play of Matt Brennan. The sophomore was 14 of 27 for over 200 yards, finding Ramses Barden for 123 yards of that total. Cal Poly has to hope the pulse shown by the passing game can be something to build on this weekend. This Mustang team is going to need to throw the football to win against North Dakota State.
The big question: Did Dan Carpenter's field goal just punch a hole in the playoff hopes of the Mustangs? It may have. The Mustangs aren't dead yet but it basically makes this weekend's game very simple. Win in the dome and you're in the field of 16. Lose and the Mustangs sit home.
The team that the Mustangs will face this weekend had a monster comeback against UC Davis to stay unbeaten against I-AA this season. Trailing 24-0 to the Aggies at half, they dropped 28 points on UCD to pick up a quality road victory. The final score came with just 10 seconds left and went to John Majeski. Steve Walker, who finished 18-39 for 257 and two touchdowns, had to complete two 4th down passes to sustain the final drive. Tony Kays led the Aggies with 11 grabs for 138 yards total.
CK's Take: Bison fans are focusing on the great comeback, Aggie fans the great collapse. This really shows you how important halftime adjustments are as a part of football. The Aggies pounded the Bison in the first half - physically with the ground game and through the air. They could do no wrong and the Aggies looked like the #4 ranked team in the nation rather than NDSU. I don't know what went on in the Bison locker room on Saturday, but Coach Bohl lit a fire under his kids and it was a different team in the second half. The Aggies could not run (that wasn't entirely unexpected, this is a great run defense) but most importantly the passing game disappeared. The Bison defensive line also started to get to Grant and pressure him a lot more in the 2nd half. The offense moved up and down the field at a torrid pace. Coach Bohl and his Bison team have to be commended for their efforts on Saturday to find a way to win this game. The combination of Kyle Steffes (23 for 111) and Walker were enough offense to complete the comeback. Just seems like one of those special seasons for the Bison. I'll keep saying it, but it's really unfortunate this team can't partake in the playoffs. I'm still not sure anyone could convince me that this team isn't one of the best 3 or 4 nationally.
As for the Aggies, for the second week in a row they surrender a big lead and suffer a devastating loss. Both weeks the team came out with a solid gameplan establishing big leads but could not hold on as the opposition mounted 2nd half comebacks. It hurts that the Aggies have no run game in those situations because UCD can't rely on the run to drain the clock and they have to play from ahead as a passing team. If the passing offense doesn't click, whether poor decisions, adjustments defensively, or bad execution, things snowball quickly. The Bison didn't change a whole lot in terms of scheme, but they did back off on the blitz quite a bit. Initially they came out with zone coverage (to start the game) but the Aggies were able to find holes underneath basically negating any rush from the defensive line. The Bison then went to man coverage and UCD diced it up. However, coming out in the 2nd half the Bison switched to a coverage they hadn't planned to use much that afternoon, something Coach Bohl referred to as a "basic fundamental coverage" that finally slowed the Aggies. With the front four also starting to put pressure Grant, everyone else could drop back into coverage. Jon Grant was nearly perfect in the first half running the Aggies quick hitting west coast passing attack, but things fell apart in the second half. Grant was erratic, and seemed to lock in on Kays almost the entire half. He also suffered some drops which didn't help at all. A key play of the game was the injury to Aggie back Marcus Nolan, which occurred prior to a 3rd and 2 on the Bison 38. With less than three minutes to go the Ags probably run the ball on 3rd down and even go on 4th down (especially in "no man's land" with the Bison moving the ball well) if they don't convert on 3rd. Forced to pass Grant made a poor decision, threw off his back foot and it resulted in poorly under thrown pick. The rest is history.
Other Games
South Dakota State 34 William Penn 3 Quick Hits: The Jacks run game was churning out yards at a high rate on Saturday notching 277 yards on the ground. Anthony Watson had 159, while Trevor Hohn added 105. Six wins in a row for the Jacks and now the focus turn to winning the Great West. Two road games stand between SDSU and the conference title. The game in Fargo on the season's final day may well decide it all.
Top 25 Ballot
My top 5: App. State. Montana. UMass. North Dakota State. James Madison. I have Cal Poly at 7th. No need to punish a team more than one spot losing to the #2 team on the road by one point. South Dakota State is ranked 22nd. I have not moved San Diego from the #23 slot I put them in four weeks ago. It's shocking that they've moved to 15th in the nation by playing no one. Voters, are you doing any research? Any Great West team would be undefeated with the Torreros schedule.
Week 10 Games
Last week's 3-0 mark runs the season's total to 25-13 (.657) on the year. This week only two games on the slate (UC Davis has a bye) and both are conference tilts. One has major playoff implications and will have national spotlight this weekend.
#22 South Dakota State (6-3) @ Southern Utah (3-6) For six weeks now the Jacks have been finding ways to continue to win games and impress all the while. This week they travel to Cedar City to take on Southern Utah in an important Great West bout for the Jacks, who entertain conference championship aspirations. For both of these teams running the ball is the key - all season long the Jacks have done it well, while the T-Birds have been hit and miss. Southern Utah knows it needs to use the ground game with Johnny Sanchez, Kyle Coop and quarterback Wes Marshall to be effective. When the run game is bottled the offense has struggled badly. Conversely, the Jacks have been very strong running the football averaging 154 per game at 4.6 a clip. Both of these defenses have to key on the run forcing quarterbacks Wes Marshall and Andy Kardoes to beat them. Both quarterbacks are somewhat similar in their toughness, athletic ability and dramatic improvement in their respective systems over the past couple seasons. And both, as well, are prone to making a mistake here and there when they try to do too much. It will be the defense that can force a key mistake that will make the difference in this game. Andy Kardoes is in the midst of his best stretch of football and the T-Birds have to find a way to disrupt his rhythm as well as slow Anthony Watson. I believe that Kardoes grit and leadership will help the Jacks pull this one out, but this game will be much closer than fans think. SUU played better than the score against NDSU indicated, is coming off a bye, and plays at home. SDSU rides solid offensive balance to a win this weekend but SUU pushes them to the wire with a big game from Marshall and receiver Joey Lew Hen. South Dakota State 23 Southern Utah 21
Game of the Week
#9 Cal Poly (6-3) @ #5 North Dakota State (8-1) Cal Poly offense vs. Bison defense. Strength against strength this weekend as these two units collides. The Mustangs run the ball well with their back James Noble, while North Dakota State has been one of the best against the run allowing just 58 yards per game (2nd nationally). The key to this Mustang offense is James Noble and making sure he is a factor. Last weekend, Montana did a great job of bottling up Noble right at the point of attack and he was really never able to get anything going. It's going to be tough again this weekend against a front seven who have been dominant against a number of quality backs this season. The Bison will do exactly what the Griz did a week ago in dedicating all they can afford to slow the back, and giving help, when available, to whomever is covering Barden. The Mustangs need to run the ball but likely that won't be enough - they're going to need Matt Brennan to make some plays with his arm or feet. Last weekend's performance in a hostile environment is a welcome sight for Mustang fans. Brennan threw the ball well and has to build on that success from a week ago. He's going to see a lot of man coverage on the outside especially on first and second down. He has to exploit that with some quality throws. Ramses Barden is certainly a monster weapon but Brennan seemed fairly comfortable looking in the direction of other receivers last weekend something that hasn't happened a lot this season. Last weekend he completed six passes to Barden and six spread out among four other receivers. Barden can be a difference maker but Brennan has to involve other in the offense. Noble needs to run but Brennan also has to make a few plays with his arm. This Cal Poly defense is probably going to need more than the nine points they generated last weekend.
North Dakota State offense vs. Mustang defense. This should be fun to watch come Saturday afternoon - a Bison offense whose balance and talent all over the field make for a difficult matchup against anyone. That offense faces its toughest test of the year when they take on a defense ranked in the top five nationally (235 ypg) and boasting a number of athletes who will have a chance to play on Sundays. This defense hasn't allowed anyone, except South Dakota State, who dropped 22 points in the final quarter, to score more than 17 points. They rank 7th against both the run and the pass nationally, which will be needed this weekend against Bison who do both well. The important keys for North Dakota State are to run the ball successfully and not get stuck in 3rd and long situations. If the Mustangs back them up the Bison have to make a few plays to get out of their own end. Cal Poly preys on opponents by consistently backing offenses up and forcing not only mistakes, but game changing defensive score type mistakes. NDSU has to pound the rock with Steffes and mix in a fair share of play action passes on first down. This isn't a Poly defense that will give up many big plays, which is why it's so difficult to score. They'll force you to put together long drives hoping that their confusing scheme and misdirection of blitzes eventually forces a mistake. Steve Walker is an ideal quarterback to face this defense because he's so calm and typically makes great decisions with the football. Fans both know how good both units are physically and athletically, so it will come down to the play in the trenches. If the Bison offensive line can keep the front seven from wreaking havoc defensively, the Bison will win this game and Walker should be able to have success through the air. If Cal Poly is getting consistent pressure, watch out, things can get ugly quickly. The Bison found that out last year.
Key matchup: Bison defensive line vs. Cal Poly offense line. The Bison defensive line (Lardinois, Frick, Fairborn, B. Dahl) has been dominant this season in helping the #7th ranked defense, allowing just 242 yards this season. Last weekend in the first half against UC Davis they had their worst halves of football all season. The Aggies ran and passed all over the Bison, the line got minimal push and was rendered ineffective. One of the reasons the Bison came back to win last weekend was they completely stifled the Aggies offense, thanks to the defensive line. This group dominated the 2nd half and made life rough for the UCD offensive line and Jon Grant. Cal Poly's offensive line has had some troubles this season when they run up against big physical lines, which the Bison definitely possess. They played pretty well in Missoula but this weekend's game will be a major challenge against this line. The Mustangs have to keep the Bison from deciding this game up front. They have to control the line of scrimmage and create some running lanes for James Noble. If the Mustangs offensive line loses the battle they'll have a tough time generating any offense and winning this game.
The Roundtable says:
Terry Vandrovec, Argus Leader (2-0) "Cal Poly's offense is vanilla aside from James Noble, and the Bison defend the run as well as anybody in the country. If NDSU can score 21 points, the Mustangs will be hard pressed to keep pace, especially in a hostile environment and against a top-5 team that will be motivated by last year's 37-6 loss. NDSU 24, Cal Poly 17."
Kent Schmidt, I-aa.org (4-3) "The Bison just seem to be playing at a higher level right now and are acting as the Great West Conference slate is the playoffs since they are ineligible for the postseason. The Mustangs will also be playing for their postseason dreams in Fargo. I think the Bison will win a very tight, low scoring affair with the scoring likely in the teens. I will take the Bison by three. NDSU 16 Cal Poly 13."
Jeff Kolpack, Fargo Forum (2-6) "Another impossible game to dissect, as you can tell by my outstanding record. Bison have had a tough time with Cal Poly's schemes, but so has everybody else in this league. Since these are two evenly-matched teams and the Mustangs have won the last two, I'm going with the odds that it's NDSU's turn. Plus, the Mustangs on an extended road trip. NDSU 20, CP 13."
Mike Mirer, Davis Enterprise (4-4) "In honor of Chris Solari, I offer a haiku: Poly needs a win. But the Bison are better. I pick quality. NDSU 9, Poly 6"
The Bottom line: Oh, the storylines. Both teams certainly won't be lacking motivation this weekend. The Bison play this game with double revenge. Two seasons ago it took a Karl Ivory pick six to tame the Bison in the Dome, 13-10. But last year's Mustang pasting in SLO certainly has to be on the minds of the Bison. No way have they forgotten that game. As for Cal Poly, this is the season. This game is their playoff life. They have to win or they're playoff shot goes out the window. These two teams both have talented defenses, with a slight edge to the Mustangs. Both teams run the ball well, but the big advantage the Bison have is the passing game in comparison to that of the Mustangs. I think the Bison are a more complete team but think the desperation of this weekend's game for Cal Poly will play a significant role. The Mustangs defense will play with a sense of urgency and they'll make a play that will be difference maker. Most fans expect the Bison to win this game at home but football is about matchups and the Bison don't match up well with the Mustangs unique style of play on defense. Coach Craig Bohl was concerned about having just a week to prepare for this `Stang defense and rightfully so. The last two seasons the Bison managed just an average of eight points and 197 yards. Yes, this Bison offense is better, but so is this Mustang defense. They'll prove it this weekend by vaulting their team into the playoffs. Cal Poly 16 North Dakota State 13
Questions. Comment. Email Chris at gwfcfootball@hotmail.com.
