Nov. 3, 2005
The Bottom Line - Week 9
By Chris Kelly
UC Davis used a 58 yard pass from Jon Grant to Tony Kays to set up what would be the winning score as UC Davis topped #10 Cal Poly, 20-13. The Aggies and Mustangs were tied deep into the 4th quarter until Grant's scramble and subsequent completion to Kays put the Aggies on the Cal Poly three yard line. Two plays later Grant would sneak it in to cap off the scoring.
The Aggies led the entire third quarter until Kenny Chicoine picked off a Jon Grant pass and took it the other for a game tying score. Grant ended the game 21-44 for 307 yards. The majority of those yards went to Tony Kays who caught 13 passes for a career high 213 yards. The Aggies defense shined again holding the Mustangs to just 113 yards of offense, 50 coming via the ground game. Jonathan Barsi led the Aggies with eight tackles, while freshman John Faletoese had two of the Aggies six sacks. Linebacker Kyle Shotwell led the Mustangs with 10 stops.
CK's Take: It's hard not to wonder where this defense ranks in comparison to previous Aggie teams. Is it the best? Very well could be. This defense has been nothing short of dominant almost the entire season, and consider the competition. The impressive thing is they seem to always find a way to top their most recent performance. Last week it was holding the North Dakota State Bison to just 3 yards rushing. This week UCD held Cal Poly to just 113 yards of total offense, and sacked the quarterback six times. Yes, Cal Poly was missing their quarterback, and top runner which certainly makes a difference to what they could do offensively. But this defense has proven to be so stingy that you have to wonder how much of a difference they would have made. After the first drive they completely shut down the Mustangs offense, whose only touchdown was a defensive score. What can they do next?
Not to be outdone is wide receiver Tony Kays, had a monster game going over 200 yards on the afternoon. Kays consistently found a way to get open all day, and Jon Grant continued to find him. The Aggies wide receiver seems to be mission to break every receiving record at the school. The one thing that can't be lost, however, is the guy who put the ball on Kays, Jon Grant. The Aggies signal caller had another strong game leading this team to a win. Remember, no running game, and he had a number of drops throughout the afternoon, yet he seems to find a way to come up big when his team needs it most. The 58-yard pass that set up the score was truly a thing of beauty. Grant was flushed to his left, scrambled back to his right as and it appeared he would tuck for a short run or throw the ball away he made the play of the game. Grant threw the ball off balance on a rope to hit Tony Kays, who had broken open deep. That pass allowed the Aggies to punch it in and beat the Mustangs for a second consecutive year.
Now to Mustangs - and their fading playoff hopes. I thought that Cal Poly would need a 3-1 finish to get in to the field of 16. Now they need to win out to get in the playoffs. That might not have been as tough of a task with Garnett at quarterback. But the Mustangs offense can't quite be sure what to expect out of Matt Brennan over the next few weeks, especially considering last weekend's offense inefficiency. He's just a red shirt freshman so there's going to be some growing pains. Then again, none of the three teams remaining on the schedule have a defense near the caliber of the Aggies. First the good news: two of the games this team can win alone on the play of their defense, and all three of the remaining games are at home. The bad news however is that the toughest game is this weekend against Eastern Washington. Nothing is a given, but this weekend's game against the Eagles has a lot riding on it. Cal Poly fans had better come out in droves to support their team - they will need it this weekend.
Other Games
Georgia Southern 55 South Dakota State 42
Quick Hits: Both teams did what I expected - ran a lot. They ran to the tune of 96 points and over 1000 yards of offense. The Jacks turned it over 4 times, however, to just one for the Eagles. SDSU couldn't afford to lose the turnover battle to such a potent offense. Anthony Watson went for over 200 yards, which just reaffirms the depth of the Jacks backfield. This team can flat out run the football, and with a passing game could have a great offense. It's very encouraging to see Josh Davis bust out with a 177 yard receiving night. The quarterbacks need to keep him involved down the stretch.
North Dakota State 37 Southern Utah 21
Quick Hits: The teams gained roughly the same amount in total offense but the difference was Kyle Steffes and turnovers. Steffes is the catalyst of this offense and his 149 yards rushing was exactly what the Bison needed. If the Bison run it, they have a great shot to win. SUU actually led 14-13 at one point, but the four turnovers, including a fumble recovery for a touchdown, were huge.
Northern Colorado 45 Fort Lewis 14
Quick Hits: The Bears were in a scoreless tie for a quarter before exploding in what was an expected blowout. Nick Hager's return, and subsequent four touchdown passes, was a nice sight for this offense. Andre Wilson rushed for 85 yards, while Andy Birkel caught two touchdowns. Key Stat: Yards per play - UNC - 6.2 Fort Lewis 4.1
Week 9 Games
This week features two conference battles, while both a Big Sky and Southland team come calling. The game of the week is a monster game, which holds huge playoff implication for both teams. Last week my SDSU upset looked good into the 3rd quarter, but eventually their loss would be my only defeat. The 3-1 mark pushes the season standings to 28-10 (.736) on the year.
Northern Colorado (3-4, 0-2) at #23 North Dakota State (5-3, 1-2)
Both the Bison and Bears bounced back last week ending two and three loss streaks respectively. The Bears saw the return of quarterback Nick Hager, which is a big boost to that offense. Hager threw the ball well last weekend (14-21, 206, 4 td's) against a sub-par Fort Lewis secondary, but his presence in the lineup can't be understated. Hager provides a solid balance to running back Andre Wilson, which will provide a test to this Bison defense. Wilson ranks 4th in the nation and rushing and along with Hager, Cory Sleeth, and Andy Birkel provide a potent offensive attack. The Bears come into play averaging nearly 400 yards a game. The Bears are all about pounding it with Wilson, in order to open things up in the passing game. This offense should be able to move the ball against the Bison defense. Don't be fooled by the record, this offensive group can bring it. The Bison had better come prepared defensively or the Bears will sneak up on them. That front four needs to contain Wilson - and make sure he doesn't take the game over. If the Bison can limit Wilson's big plays, they should be in excellent shape to come away winners. If Wilson gets going early, this could be a shootout that falls the way of the Bears.
The reason that the Bison are favored in this game is not just the home field, but the fact that Bison possess an offensive mismatch in comparison to the Bears defense. The UNC group has shown a propensity to give up big chunks of yardage to competent offenses. The Bears come in allowing nearly 400 yards per game, including 178 on the ground. That plays right into the Bison's hands, as they'll look to ride Kyle Steffes once again to a big day, and a victory. Offensively, the Bison will run the ball, but the biggest thing to keep an eye on is Steve Walker. His stats over the last three game: 43-90, (47.7%) 2td, 3 int's. Those just aren't the efficient Steve Walker type numbers fans are used to seeing. It will be interesting to see if Walker can back on track this weekend. He's seemed out of sorts over his last couple games, specifically never looking comfortable in the pocket. UNC will need to sell out and improve against the run, then hope Walker's has another average game. If they do, the Bears can steal one because their offense can score. But UNC hasn't proven they can stop a team with a strong running game, thus I expect Steffes to tally another 100-yard effort. The Bison offensive line should be able to control the line of scrimmage and allow the junior back to get loose for a couple big runs. Steffes will propel the Bison to another W, as the Bears fall to 2-14 lifetime in the Fargo Dome. North Dakota State 27 Northern Colorado 17
Southern Utah (1-2, 1-6) at South Dakota State (4-4, 1-1)
After two weeks at home, the Thunderbirds hit the road this weekend to take on the Jacks. Last weekend the T-Birds moved the ball better than in previous weeks as the quarterback duo of Zac Connor and Wes Marshall combined for 232 yards passing and over 40 rushing. Southern Utah's quarterbacks continue to show signs of breaking through with a big game, but are really hampered by the lack of a running game. Only once this season has Southern Utah really been able to get the rush attack on track. Last week Jamar Lee ran the ball 10 times for 27 yards. In order for this offense to compete they have to win the battle up front and run the ball to take some of the pressure off of their quarterbacks. Opposing defenses have been able to plug the run and pin their ears back to get after Thunderbird quarterbacks. South Dakota State is allowing over 166 yards on the ground, but part of that is skewed by the monster rushing game (484 yards) that Georgia Southern had last weekend. SUU may find the running a tad better this weekend but I'm still not super confident that the Thunderbirds offensive line can win the battle against the Jacks front four. If the run is plugged the T-Birds offense may have a tough time breaking out once again.
The Jacks offense, meanwhile, looks more impressive each week. I felt they would run the ball very well last week against the Eagles, and they did. What I didn't expect was Ryan Berry, the red shirt freshman quarterback to play so well almost eclipsing 300 yards in his first career start. Don't forget about the five touchdowns passes either. If Berry can come along in the back half of this season and provide a passing spark, this offense could arguably compete with anyone. But let's not forget about starter Andy Kardoes, who sat out last week's game with an injury. It appears he will return this season, but this week is still a big question. In all likelihood, Berry once again gets the call. Whoever lines up under center has the benefit of a powerful running game, which ranks ninth in the nation. SDSU leads the league by a long shot averaging over 247 yards a game keyed by Cory Koenig and Anthony Watson. Both backs are over 700 yards on the year, which creates the possibility of the Jacks having two back go over the 1,000 yard mark. Now that would be impressive. Regardless of who starts at quarterback this week, and how well the Jacks throw the ball, South Dakota State will win this game. Their defense should provide enough key stops of the SUU offense, while the rushing attack goes off once again against a group that has allowed six backs to gain at least 88 yards. Watson and Koenig should combine for 200 as South Dakota State rolls at home. South Dakota State 34 Southern Utah 14
#21 UC Davis (5-3, 3-1) at Stephen F. Austin (4-4)
The Aggies are fresh off two wins against ranked opponents and take their defensive clinic on the road this week to Texas to face Stephen F Austin. However, the questions quickly becomes is how dominant can this defense remain based on the big losses suffered last weekend against Cal Poly? UC Davis lost two corners, Andy Sullivan (leg), Kyle Tarp (knee), and safety Jonathan Barsi (knee) to injury. Sullivan is done for the year, and both Tarp and Barsi are very doubtful. Nevan Bergan, and Adam Cook are both talented corners, and Luis Amaral has done a great job filling in for Barsi before. It's not the concern of these guys making plays, but rather the strain it puts on the depth of the unit as a whole. This makes for a big challenge against a Lumberjack team that proved very competent in throwing the rock last week in quarterback Danny Southall's first career start. Southall completed 58% of his passes for 265 yards, and rushed for another 38 yards. He'll start again this week and look to his most talented wide receiver, Chance Dennis (582 yds, 3 td's), to make some big plays. Dennis is complimented by receivers, Tyrel Williams, and Dominiq Edison, who have combined for 900 yards and eight touchdowns. Last year, SFA liked to feature a power running game, along with a speedy quarterback who could make plays with his legs. Southall is an athletic quarterback who can move, but throws the ball better than Michael Williams. In fact, even when Zeke Dixon was at quarterback SFA proved they can throw the ball. They come into play averaging 291 yards a game passing, which should make for a challenge especially with the difficulty the Aggies secondary is facing. New head coach Robert Mcfarland will most certainly feel confident allowing his quarterback to sit behind an experience line returning all five starters and go after the Aggies secondary. What does he have to lose after all? The Aggies enter the game 5th against the run, so it's not likely that any of the three backs in the SFA rotation will have a huge game. Stephen F. Austin will likely find the running tough against one of the quickest defensive fronts the Lumberjacks have seen. Thus they must go after this banged up secondary, and try to win the game through the air. Those members of the secondary will likely find themselves playing more reps than usual this week, and will need some help from their defensive line to make like difficult for Southall. The winner of the battle between a big veteran offensive line, and the speedy defensive front of the Aggies will go a long way in determining this week's winner.
While the SFA offense can move the ball, they also allow the opposing offense to get loose as well. The Lumberjacks come into play allowing nearly 400 yards, including over 200 yards through the air. That's music to the Aggies ears, as nothing changes in their attack this week. UC Davis will attempt to run the ball, likely have minimal success, and then depend on Jon Grant to make plays to win the game. The good news is Grant is just getting better week by week, and he is on the few quarterbacks in I-AA who can win games with a one-dimensional offense. That and he has Tony Kays on his side. Kays has over 900 yards receiving, and averages 116 yards per game. Even though everyone knows the ball is going his way always finds way to get open. Kays ability to understand the opposition's coverage and scheme allows him to consistently find the hole in defense, which is a reason he inexplicably seems to be open all day. While the defense took some hits last week, the offense gets a boost with the return of some key players. Daniel Fells, the Aggies pre-season All-American tight end returns to action. He'll likely play in a limited role, but will force defense to defend another dangerous option. Nelson Doris is also back, which the Aggies hope will help the running attack. The Lumberjacks Ryan Luedecke, a starting safety leads the team in tackles, and stops for loss. SFA loves to bring their safeties on blitzes to put pressure on the quarterback. Last season, however, SFA was really the first team to use just the front four to put pressure on Grant, and drop seven into coverage forcing the Aggies into underneath options. The defense was something similar to what South Dakota State employed earlier this season. Expect them to do more of the same this week, which means that if UCD can't run the ball, fans may see more of Jon Grant moving with the ball on designed runs. If SFA can put the same amount of pressure as last season with just the front four, they'll win this game. If the Aggies offensive line, a much improved group over last season, gives Grant time, the Aggies will have a big day offensively.
Don't let the Lumberjacks 4-4 record fool you. This offense is averaging over 400 yards a game, ranking 16th in the nation. They are arguably the most athletic, and physical team the Aggies have faced all season, save Stanford. Couple that with some key Aggie injuries, a long road trip, and this game is stacking up to be tough battle. The Aggies will ride a strong offensive performance, some key defensive stops, and Daniel Fells first touchdown of the year to win a game that's closer than fans might expect. UC Davis 27 Stephen F. Austin 20
Game of the Week
#11 Eastern Washington (5-3) at #18 Cal Poly (5-3, 3-1)
Eastern Washington offense vs. Mustang defense
The Eagles come into play featuring the most potent offenses in the nation averaging over 500 yards of total offense. They are the only team in I-AA that is averaging over 500 yards of offense, which is an intimidating stat. The offense is all run through soon to be All-American Quarterback Erik Meyer, who makes up a big chunk of that number. He has weapons all over the field, but none as talented as wide receiver Eric Kimble. Kimble comes into play averaging 127 yards per game, which is good enough for second in the nation. He's already surpassed the 1000 yard mark this season, and has to be of major concern to the Cal Poly secondary. Last weekend, that group allowed Aggie wide receiver Tony Kays to go over 200 yards with 13 catches. Raul Vigil, who averages over 87 a game, makes this the most potent pass catching duo in the nation. Courtney Brown, the Mustangs top cover corner, and Randy Samuel, will have their hands full with these two and must find a way to slow them down. Certainly, the Mustangs safeties, Kenny Chicoine, and Aaron Williams will play big roles in this game as well. These two don't get as much pub as they deserve, but both will have a big impact on this weekend's game. The Eagles passing attack is so strong that they really use it to open up the run. And that run game is provided by Oregon State transfer Ryan Cole. Cole has gained over 700 yards on the ground which is just over 91 yards per game. Expect the Mustangs leading tackler, Kyle Shotwell (90 tackles, 9.5 for loss) to be stalking Cole all afternoon. The Mustangs will need to shut down the run completely with minimal players, and dedicate as many defenders to the pass as possible. Certainly Cal Poly's defensive scheme will need to confuse Meyer, and knock him around. The space for error is so small that it could be the difference in Meyer having a huge day, and an average one.
Cal Poly offense vs. Eagles defense
The Mustangs knew the going might be tough a week ago as red-shirt freshman Matt Brennan took over at quarterback, but no one figured the Cal Poly offense would be held to less than 120 yards of offense. A big piece was the gaping hole in the backfield as James Noble sat out with a sprained ankle. There are three positives heading into this week that should make the Mustangs feel better about their chances to jump start the offense. First, Noble is back and provides a big play threat out of the backfield, which wasn't there last weekend. His consistency to balance the offense has been a staple of the Mustangs team all season. Second, Brennan has a game under his belt. The old adage says a team improves most from its first to second week, well the Mustangs hope the something similar comes to form with their young quarterback this weekend. And finally, The Eastern Washington defense isn't UC Davis. The Eagles come into play allowing nearly 330 yards of total offense. That isn't a huge number but the 140 yards per game rushing at four yards per clip stands out. The Eagles are only allowing 189 yards passing per game, which is something the Mustangs need to surpass this weekend. Just a week ago, Matt Brennan threw the ball minimally in an attempt by Coach Rich Ellerson to minimize Brennan's mistakes. With all that is riding on the line this week, and the strength of Brennan's arm, the Mustangs need to open it up this weekend and attack the Eagles down the field. Wide receiver Ramses Barden, who only caught one pass last weekend, need to see at least three deep balls throw his way. The Mustangs top four receivers are all guys who can make a big plays, it's just a question of whether their young quarterback can get them the ball. This passing game can thrive if Brennan can make just two or three big plays down the field. The wide receivers are talented enough to go up and make big plays, and it would do wonders for opening up the running game even further. Brennan's performance in his first two series should set a tone for what sort of game fans can expect from the youngster.
Key matchup: Erik Meyer vs. the Cal Poly defensive line. It wasn't that long ago that I spend some time talking about Cal Poly's defense facing a Walter Payton candidate in Montana State's Travis Lulay. That game the Cal Poly defense had a strong showing holding Lulay to 12-25 passing and an interception. He never became a big factor in the game, a reason the Mustangs rolled to an impressive home victory. Well the Mustangs face a quarterback, in my opinion, who is even more talented than Lulay this weekend. That would be Erik Meyer, and here is the senior's stats year to date: 194- 287, 67.8%, 2848 yds, 19 td's, 4 int's, and 367 yards per game. Meyer ranks #2 in the nation in total offense, and is certainly one of the front runners to come away with the Walter Payton award, given to the best player in the nation. Meyer is going to attack Cal Poly through the air, as he's averaging 36 passing attempts per game. Plain and simple, if he's given time, even with a talented Mustangs secondary, he's going to beat you. That why it's up to the fierce front line of the Mustangs to provide constant pressure on Meyer. Chris Gocong, a front runner for the Buck Buchanan award, has been quiet the last couple games. If Gocong (11.5 sacks) was ever to pick a game to have his biggest, this would be the one the Mustangs need the most. He along with Matt Cachere and Chris White need to control the line. Rich Ellerson will look to his line, as well as throwing a complex blitz package at the Eagles to get to Meyer. If they get to Meyer and can knock him around throughout the game, the Mustangs are in great shape. If Meyer gets comfortable, however, he'll put 400 yards in a quick manner.
X-Factor: James Noble, RB, Cal Poly. Last week, in this section of the game preview, Matt Brennan was listed as a key piece to the game. He struggled in his first start to really generate any sort of offense after the first drive, but let's not forget that this Cal Poly offense was missing its key ingredient, James Noble. Noble sprained his ankle against Montana, and couldn't go last week. He'll likely be ready to resume his duties as the primary running back this week, and the Mustangs need him badly. I detailed all his accolades, including ranking in the top 10 in rushing and averaging over seven yards per carry. He has to have a big game this weekend if the Mustangs are to topple the Eagles. It's still unclear how effective Matt Brennan will be in his second start, but if Noble can run the ball against this Eagles defense, it will go a long way. The good news is that the Eagles are allowing over 140 yards per game, and over 4 yards per carry. The Eagles will do exactly what UC Davis did last weekend in stacking the box to stop the run/option, and force Brennan to beat them through the air. James Noble has to be successful running the ball this weekend.
The Roundtable says:
Jeff Kolpack (3-5): "Cal Poly has proven to be a great home team in the last couple of years and with its new quarterback getting a game under his belt, I like for the Mustangs to rebound. Cal Poly 29, EWU 21."
Chris Solari (4-3): "EWU AT CAL POLY: Even after the close game with UC Davis last week, this game represents the Mustangs' entire season. Win and, most likely, go to the playoffs. Lose and stay home again after last season's snub. Rich Ellerson's team won't use three in a row, let alone two straight at home. Don't be surprised if Cal Poly's defense takes out its frustration on EWU quarterback Erik Meyer. CAL POLY 17, EWU 10."
Mike Mirer (4-4): "Cal Poly looked terrible offensively on Saturday, but UC Davis does that to a lot of people. I expect the Mustangs to be able to move the ball on the Eagles, which is allowing a healthy chunk of yardage. But Cal Poly just isn't the same team without Anthony Garnett. It's unfortunate that this will be the way the Mustangs fall out of the playoff chase. EWU 38, Cal Poly 21"
The Bottom Line: Let's cut right to the chase: this game hold each team's respective seasons in the balance. The loser will likely be eliminated from any sort of playoff hopes, while the winner boosts their chances of postseason play tremendously. It was last season that Eastern Washington knocked Cal Poly out of the playoffs with a 38-21 victory in Washington. This season the Eagles offense is even better, while the Cal Poly defense hasn't been on its game over the past couple weekends. Eastern Washington hasn't scored less than 23 points in any game, which makes you wonder how Cal Poly can win this game? Erik Meyer is a big time player, who runs an offense that the Mustangs couldn't stop last year. Now, it appears the Mustangs will need to outscore an Eagle team with their backup red shirt freshman at the helm. This being the same player who threw for less than 100 yards last weekend. All signs point not only point to Eastern Washington winning this game, but winning it convincingly. But sometimes I have to go with my gut when making a pick. This Cal Poly team was robbed of the playoffs last season, and knows what a loss means this weekend. I think they'll come out with a sense of desperation this weekend, and rise to the occasion. While the Eagles have statistically the best offense in then nation, I'll take the home team with the better defense to find a way to win. The Mustangs scratch one out in a thriller in San Luis to keep their playoff hopes alive. Cal Poly 27 Eastern Washington 24
Comments. Questions. Email Chris at gwfcfootball@hotmail.com
Up Next: Vacation - thus the column returns in two weeks.