Nov. 1, 2006

The Bottom Line - Week 9
By Chris Kelly

Cal Poly notched I-AA's eight win over a I-A team, and second for a Great West team as the Mustangs topped San Diego State, 16-14. The Mustangs fell behind quickly 14-3 but battled back all game behind kicker Nick Coromelas' leg and a Ramses Barden touchdown pass. Cal Poly trailed by one point and had the ball three times in the final nine minutes but weren't able to take the lead until Kenny Chicoine recovered an Aztec fumble on the SDSU 23-yard line. Three plays later Coromelas' 39-yard field goal gave the `Stangs the lead. SDSU drove to the Cal Poly 30-yard line but missed a 48-yard field goal with 32 second remaining.

CK's Take: I talked last week about whether this game was a must win or not and a case could be made either way. But there was no debating that the Mustangs had to win two of it's next three in a brutal stretch of tough road games. Saturday's win was huge for Cal Poly! Hats off to Coach Rich Ellerson and his staff for getting his team ready to play this game coming off the heartbreaking defeat a week ago. I said it would be a Ramses Barden touchdown and a defensive score that would get them the W this past week and wasn't too far off. The defense's recovery of a fumble with three minutes to go was huge and the reason they walked away winners. The offense had it's normal formula: a lot of James Noble (25 carries, 100 yards), key plays by Barden (3 catches, 80 yards, 1 td), and not much of anything from the passing game (Brennan: 4-13, 80 yds, all to Barden) At some point, I wonder if they're going to need more from Brennan, and we may find that out this week in a huge showdown for the Mustangs at Montana.

As for the defense, what more can I say about Kyle Shotwell that hasn't already been said. This guy racked up 12 tackles on Saturday, including four sacks. He continues to put up big numbers (87 tackles, 16 for loss, 6 sacks) and I think just put him self in great position for a legitimate shot to win the Buchanan award. He has to be one of the top five guys right now. This defense started slow allowing 148 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter. They didn't allow a point and just 158 yards over the next three quarters. That's an impressive effort.

Cal Poly made a big statement on Saturday night by finding a way to this game - and what a confidence builder it has to be heading into Missoula in what has to be the national game of the week in I-AA this week.

Another team that seems to find ways to win is South Dakota State - they just like to do it in a little more dramatic fashion. Once again, the Jacks trailed big in the 4th quarter 21-10 before scoring 12 unanswered points. Parker Douglass kicked a field goal and Andy Kardoes threw two touchdowns passes. The final pass was a 9-yard pass to Dusty Snyders that capped a 12-play drive with under a minute to go. Kardoes finished the game 23-36 for 278 yards. JaRon Harris topped the 100-yard mark again with 110 yard receiving. SDSU outgained the Aggies 405-299.

CK's Take: The Cardiac Jacks? It's definitely a fitting name for this group and their never say die attitude. Check out these numbers - in their comeback wins against McNeese State, Cal Poly, and UC Davis they overcame 11, 22, and 11 in the final quarter. In the fourth quarter of those games they combined to outscore their opponents 49-0. These guys just find a way to pull out games it appears they are well out of and in this weekend's game it was once again Andy Kardoes doing it with his arm. He threw for 123 of his 278 yards in the final quarter including both of his touchdowns. Although not conventional and probably not easy on their coaches, the Jacks have been impressive over their five game winning streak. All these wins will reward them with their first I-AA ranking as well, which is pretty sweet. Congrats Jacks.

With every comeback there is the team that was gashed in the loss, and that was UC Davis. In games like this you can look back at missed opportunities and things that could have been done different. Both teams had plenty of chances, but none more damaging as the Aggies 1st and goal on the SDSU one yard line, which resulted in no points. The Aggies frustration of being one or two plays away in key games and not being able to win one continues. They could not run the ball but their passing game was basically relegated to a bunch of short passes and screens much like last season. The Jacks rushed four and were able to get decent pressure on Grant doing just that all afternoon. They then dropped seven and played a zone forcing UCD to use basically short underneath routes all afternoon. It worked last season and again this season. The head scratching part was the short passes when the Aggies needed to get downfield and get into field goal range on the final drive and time was at a premium. As good as the Jacks were on Saturday, the Aggies have to take something away from that loss. They also have to find a way to start winning some of these close games.

Other Games
North Dakota State 31 Southern Utah 7 Quick Hits: The Bison rolled and Kyle Steffes again delivered another 100-yard game. The Bison controlled the line of scrimmage rushing for over 200 yards at 5.7 per clip. The score may not show it but SUU moved the ball much better than the past couple games. However, they were never able to gain any momentum because anytime the Bison needed a big play defensively, they got it.

Top 10 Pro Prospect w/ Josh Buchanan

Here are Josh's updated top 10 lists heading into play this week. He'll have another update the week before the playoffs start.
1. CB Courtney Brown, Cal Poly
2. OT Elliot Vallejo, UC Davis
3. ILB Kyle Shotwell, Cal Poly
4. RB Kyle Steffes, North Dakota State
5. QB Jon Grant, UC Davis
6. WR Travis White, North Dakota State
7. WR Tony Kays, UC Davis
8. SS Craig Dahl, North Dakota State
9. FS Kenny Chicoine, Cal Poly
10. DE Brian Dahl, North Dakota State

Future of the GWFC?
All season there have been questions about the state of the conference. I get more emails about the future of the conference and what it looks like, what teams will be there in two years, will there be an auto-bid any time in the near future. It's heating up even more as the possibility of the Dakota's potentially moving to the Gateway by 2008 has emerged over the past week. I'll be sitting down and talking with conference commissioner Ed Grom at season's end to answer all the questions about the future and more. If there's any question you want answered (within reason) feel free to email me. Stay Tuned.

Week 9 Games

Another 2-1 week runs the year's record to 22-13 (.628), which is getting a little more respectable by the week. This year has had its share of tough games to call and this week doesn't get any easier with two fantastic matchups featuring a Great West Battle and two top ten teams battling in Missoula.

William Penn (4-5) at #24 South Dakota State (5-3) The nationally ranked Jacks (has a sweet ring to it, doesn't it, Jacks fans?) enter play this week with a few firsts and lasts. The game with William Penn, a NAIA school in Iowa, will be the first meeting between the two teams. The national ranking is the first at the I-AA level for South Dakota State. And finally, this weekend's mark the final home game in the career of SDSU seniors. One of those seniors, Andy Kardoes, accounted for over 290 of total offense last week and has a tremendous turnaround since the start of the season. Once struggling to lead this offense over the first couple games, Kardoes has emerged as a confident leader who has orchestrated three ridiculous comebacks against very good football teams. Last week's conference offensive player of the week leads an offense that is peaking and comes into play fresh off dropping 400-yards on a good UC Davis defense. William Penn should be ripe for the picking considering that three of their four starters in the secondary are sophomores or younger. Look for lots of yards on the ground from Cory Koenig and Anthony Watson, but also expect that Kardoes has another standout performance in his final home game of his career.

On the other side of the ball the Jacks defense seems to be getting better each week as well. The defensive line has played so well over the past five games getting consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks. And they're getting some help from some great play at linebacker. Justin Kubesh is second in the Great West with 7.8 stop per game, while converted safety Jimmy Rodgers pitched in a career high 15 tackles against UC Davis. This front seven will be relied upon heavily to stop a Statesmen team that wants to run the ball with James Johnson. The senior has already run for 999 yards, including three games with at least 196 yards this season. They proved last week that they don't necessarily need a running game to win as they beat Trinty International last week, 19-12, without an offensive touchdown. The Statesmen blocked two punts that were returned for scores. They won't be able to rely on that this weekend and will need to run the ball against this Jacks team to be successful considering their quarterback, Ryan Van Dalen, has been average this season. The Jacks front seven is playing too well to let William Penn establish much of anything on the ground, which means Van Dalen probably makes a couple mistakes throwing into an improving secondary. SDSU has experienced some major lows this season, so there won't be a letdown this week against inferior competition. South Dakota rolls then will refocus on the Great West title next weekend. South Dakota State 32 William Penn 6

#5 North Dakota State (7-1) at UC Davis (4-4) The Aggies and Bison renew rivalries this weekend at Toomey Field in a series that is tied 4-4, although the Aggies have taken three of the last four. In each of those games it's been the team that has dominated the trenches that has won the game. Two seasons ago, the Bison beat the Aggies up along the line as bad as I had seen an Aggie team get physically handled and NDSU came away victorious. UCD returned the favor last season as the Ags defensive line beat the tar out of the Bison O-line frustrating the NDSU offense. Last season the Aggies defense held their rushing attack to just three yards on 23 carries, one of the most impressive outings of the year. The Aggies defense will need to have success against the run again this weekend to beat the Bison. They'll bring eight into the box and look to slow Steffes just like last season. The Aggies top focus is always to control the run game and it clearly becomes more important against a tough Bison front adept at running the ball. James Amos, John Faletoese and company has to win the battle along the line of scrimmage and keep the run at bay. If the Aggies can do that they'll put everything on Steve Walker's shoulders. A year ago Walker didn't have his best game as his team was made one-dimensional but that's not typical of him. Whether the Aggies can take the run away or not, they'll need to play really well out on the edges. The Bison wide receivers (White, Heckendorf) along with their tight end (Wurzbacher) have really developed some great chemistry with their quarterback in this west coast passing game. To win this year, Walker is going to need to do what he couldn't least year, throw the ball consistently against the Aggies secondary. Ultimately this side of the ball will come down to the Aggies defensive line. They play like they did a year ago and the Aggies have a great shot to win this game. If the Bison get the running game churning and give Walker a chance to make his throws on the quick timing routes, the Bison offense could have a field day.

As for the Bison defense, they come into play #1 against the rush (56 ypg), scoring defense (10 ppg) and #5 in total defense (236 ypg). This front seven is exceptional against the run and considering the Aggies inability to establish the run there won't be any sort of break-through this weekend. Last year it was some key throws and runs by quarterback Jon Grant that propelled UCD to a win. The defense that allowed the Aggies to score 20 points in the FargoDome is much better than a year ago. The Aggies always love to come out and try to establish the run - forget it against this front seven. This week they need to come out throwing early and often using the draw and running very sporadically to catch the Bison with their ears pinned back. If there is one area that can be exploited it's the Bison secondary. Considering the immense talent of Brandon Rice (should be healthy this weekend), Tony Kays, and Chris Carter, UCD has to get the ball to their playmakers. The Bison will see what SDSU did last week rushing four most of the game and playing a soft zone dropping seven the entire game. Expect them to repeat some of that scheme but also expect they'll come after Grant. They'll play a lot of cover two to give some help to the corners on the talented wide out looking for the line to really handle the run, which shouldn't be a problem. This defense is extremely physical up front and linebackers quick to the quarterback. The issue with the Aggies passing game is that it's gone too far away from its talented receivers and too much to the backs. Consistent check downs from Grant have become the norm rather than occasional change of pace. While SDSU forced a lot of that last weekend, the Aggies quarterback has to get the ball to his wide outs. This is especially true if the Aggies have a shot at this game this weekend. As for the Bison - stop the run, blitz Grant, and do what SDSU did last week - force UCD to run everything underneath. Grant and both lines need to play as well as they did a season ago and then some for UCD to win this weekend's game. NDSU is one of the best three or four teams in the nation and has been dominant on both sides of the ball. Even if the Aggies take away Steffes, Walkers maturity in this system has made him so effective. I don't think the Aggies can stop the passing offense from putting up points. The Bison results thus far this season might indicate that NDSU rolls in this game but just like SDSU gives UCD fits, the Aggies give the Bison similar problems with their matchups. The game will be closer than some think, but this Bison team has entirely too much this season. The Bison climb to the #1 in the nation spot continues this week. North Dakota State 23 UC Davis 17

Game of the Week

#6 Cal Poly (6-2) at #2 Montana (7-2) Cal Poly and Montana meet for the 12th time this season and for the third time in the past two seasons. The Mustangs are 1-10 against the Grizzlies with their lone win coming in Missoula in last year 35-21 victory in the first round of the playoffs.

Mustang Offense vs. Montana Defense. Is there anything that fans that have been following this column aren't aware when it comes to this Cal Poly offense? I can sum it up very quickly: very good rushing attack, mobile quarterback who can make some plays with his feet, and a poor passing game. And the Mustangs haven't deviated from this scouting report all season. James Noble always finds a way to be successful, even against defenses who load the box to stop him. In the same manner, Matt Brennan has been unable to establish any consistency. Montana won't do anything different than all the other teams this season. They'll load everyone up in the box and make Brennan beat them. All the while giving some help over the top anywhere wide receiver Ramses Barden is on the field. Defensively, Montana comes into play 14th in total defense as well as 14th in rushing defense allowing just over 100 yards. This Montana front seven, led by Tyler Joyce (LB, 45 tackles), Kroy Biermann (DE, 41 tackles, 7 for loss, 5 sacks) and Kyle Ryan (LB, 40 tackles, 3.5 for loss) will face a challenge in James Noble this weekend. In two games last season, Noble had his way with Montana rushing for 337 yards (5.3 per carry) with four touchdowns. This season's rush defense, at least statistically, is better. They've only allowed one back to top the 100-yard mark when Northern Arizona's Alex Henderson picked up 114 on 22 carries. The Jacks Cory Koenig racked up 93 yards earlier in the season. The question is whether they can contain Noble? He's definitely the best back the Griz defense has faced this season and has proven success against this defense. If they can contain the sophomore speedster, they win the game. If not, the Mustangs have an excellent shot to win again in Missoula.

Grizzly Offense vs. Cal Poly Defense. Montana comes into play this week with a pretty capable offense averaging over 350 yards per game. While the run game has always been solid, this season it's a little down (compared to previous seasons) but still productive. The loss of star back Lex Hilliard before the year started dramatically changed the look of the ground game and it's become two backs that are trying to make up for his loss. Reggie Bradshaw and Brady Green are combining to average 95 yards per game with a 4.1 and 3.9 averages, respectively. While the Grizzlies are always dedicated to the run, it's been the pass which has been the more successful means of moving the ball this season. The arm making those throws are Washington State transfer Josh Swogger. The senior signal-caller has been completing 56% of his passes having thrown for nearly 1500 yards and eight touchdowns. Swogger likes to spread it out as well having thrown at least 10 completions to five different receivers. Ryan Bagley and Eric Allen are the two top wide outs with 63 grabs for 889 yards. What Montana comes out trying to do this weekend shouldn't come of much surprise to the Mustangs. They'll come out looking to establish the ground game and try to push the Mustangs front seven around a bit hoping to open up some big plays off the play action. This defense, ranked 3rd in all of I-AA is as talented as they come and matches up very well against this Montana offense. If the front four can physically handle the offensive line, running room will be difficult which will put the pressure on Swogger to throw into arguably the best I-AA secondary. If Swogger is on top of his game, he can make some big plays which help result in some points against this defense. If he forces the action without the benefit of a run game, he'll play right into the Mustangs hands defensively. The biggest key on this side of the ball will be Swogger's decisions with the football. Fans should know by the end of the first quarter how prepared he is to deal with this stingy Mustang defense.

Key matchup: Cal Poly WR Ramses Barden vs. Montana secondary. When reviewing the Cal Poly offense there are two skill players the Griz have to be concerned with. I discussed Noble at length. The other is wide receiver Ramses Barden. The 6'6 matchup nightmare is having another solid season as really the only threat in the passing game. So far this season he has 33 catches, 657 yards at 81 yards per game. Matt Brennan is only throwing for 110 per game with 81 of those going to Barden. All the other receivers (including TE's and backs) have caught 24 passes. When you talk passing offense, Barden is it for the Mustangs. But he is dangerous and has big play capability on any play. The Montana corners, Jimmy Wilson and Tuff Harris, are both talented but face the same problem every other corner has against Barden, size. At 6'0 and 5'11 respectively, Barden has a major advantage so Montana has to give help over the top and roll coverage his way all game. Expect a safety to sit over the top for four quarters. When Noble's not running the rock, Brennan is taking his shots down the field to Barden. If Brennan can put it on him, Barden will burn the opposition. He went for 125 and 83 along with three touchdowns (25 yards per catch) in last season's two games against Montana. Simply, the Griz have to slow Noble but always have an extra defender on Barden. If he makes a few big plays, Cal Poly wins this game.

X-Factor: Turnovers. You can run down the Cal Poly schedule and look at each win and point to a key turnover that contributed the Mustangs ability to post a W in that particular game. This defense has been pretty average (in terms of NCAA statistics) of forcing turnovers with 16, which ranks them in the middle of the I-AA pack. However, one thing more important than the turnovers forced is the timing of those turnovers. And it seems the Mustangs always find a key time to force a fumble or pick and put their struggling offense in position to win a game. The Mustangs don't beat Southern Utah or San Diego State without some nice timing on a turnover. This weekend is simple: If Cal Poly wins this game they will have had to force a couple turnovers and help their offense. That's not an easy thing to do against a Grizzly team that takes care of the ball. They rank 7th in turnover margin having gained 20 turnover and only losing 12. If Montana loses the ball once or less, the Grizzlies win this game. The Mustangs need two or more turnovers this week to post a victory.

The Rountable says:

Terry Vandrovec, Argus Leader (1-0): "Cal Poly has Montana's attention in light of last year's playoff win in Missoula and last week's victory at San Diego State. The Griz will be geared up for this one. Montana 24, Cal Poly 13."

Kent Schmidt, I-aa.org (3-3) "Even though the Mustangs won at I-A San Diego State last week, I cannot overlook how the Grizzlies have performed so far. While they have played some close games in Big Sky play, this is usually the case every year in that conference. I like Montana in a closely fought contest. I say Montana by three. Montana 29 Cal Poly 26."

Jeff Kolpack, Fargo Forum (2-5) "Cal Poly is not scared about the thought of going to Missoula and I think is one of the few teams in the country that can pull off a victory in that environment. Cal Poly 17, Montana 12."

Mike Mirer, Davis Enterprise (3-4) "You want to hear a strange stat? Montana's quarterbacks have thrown seven interceptions this season and the returns total exactly 4 yards. And its skilled players have lost five fumbles, which have come back for 0 yards. That's 12 turnovers and 4 return yards. That does not bode well for Poly, which needs its defense to either score points or at least set up short fields in order to win. Elsewhere I like the match-up for Poly. Montana has allowed 29 sacks this year and it doesn't run the ball particularly impressively. It's just whole scoring points things, which the Mustangs still don't have the hang of. Montana 19, Cal Poly 16"

The Bottom Line: This game is as tough as they come. Cal Poly, despite not having much offense this season, has managed to win big games by virtue of terrific defensive play and the legs of James Noble. They've also proven they can win in Montana and can do so with Matt Brennan as the quarterback with Noble chipping in yards, big chunks at a time. I've always wondered when the luck would run out though - when they would finally need the offense to put together consistent long drives to win a game. I think it will be this week. They can't depend on this Montana team, who takes care of the football, to give it up two or more times. That means it will flal on the Cal Poly offense to deliver, something they haven't proven they can do just yet. This is a winnable game for Poly if turnovers and Barden play big factors. And if the Mustangs do win, go ahead and get your playoff tickets Mustang fans. However, I think Swogger, a gritty defense, and the best atmosphere in I-AA football send the Mustangs to their third loss this weekend. A late Grizzly score is the difference. Montana 22 Cal Poly 17

Questions. Comments. Email Chris at gwfcfootball@hotmail.com