Oct. 19, 2006

The Bottom Line - Week 7
By Chris Kelly

The Bison notched another win on Saturday afternoon disposing of Mississippi Valley State 45-0 and moving their perfect record to 6-0. North Dakota State jumped out to an early lead on a Steve Walker to Tyler Roehl 6-yard pass and never looked back in pasting the Delta Devils. They scored offensively, defensively, and even added in a special teams score. Once again NDSU was terrific against the run limiting MVSU to just 68 yards on 36 attempts. Linebacker Tyler Henry starred on defense with 11 tackles and one sack as they limited the Delta Devils to just 130 yards.

CK's Take: The Bison continue to look every bit one of the best teams in the nation. They didn't blow anyone away with their offensive numbers this week but only because their defense and special teams limited the amount of yards they needed to travel to find pay dirt. Kyle Steffes didn't get his 100 yards but did average over five yards per carry. Steve Walker only threw for 83 yards but somehow managed to find nine different receivers to spread the 83 yards out. He'll have to play better next week against the Golden Gophers if the Bison are thinking upset. The defense was once again dominant. They allowed nothing via the air (62 yards) and held the rushing game to 1.9 per carry. I've spent a lot of time talking about how good the Cal Poly defense has been this season, but somewhat over-shadowed has been this Bison defense. Cal Poly could just have the best defense in the nation, but the Bison aren't far behind.

Nothing about this game was surprising and quite frankly I think everyone associated with the Bison is glad this game is done. After the Bison toppled Georgia Southern, NDSU fans knew they would beat MVSU, thus setting up the game that the fans have awaited all season long. But the upcoming game against Minnesota wasn't supposed to happen with the Bison undefeated, especially considering the difficulty of this schedule. Now this game means even more in what has already been a special season for North Dakota State especially considering the perfect record. Do they have another I-A stunner in their back pockets? We'll talk more about it in a bit.

Other Games

UC Davis 33 Central Arkansas 13 Quick Hits: Quarterback Jon Grant (26-37, 291 yards, 3 td's) was on his game ands the Aggies offense flourished. All-American Tony Kays and freshman Chris Carter combined for 14 catches and 218 yards. It's almost impossible for a defense to contain both of these guys completely. The defense stuffed the run which forced UCA to be one-dimensional, something the Bears can't survive doing at this level yet. Now the Aggies, at 3-3, can start talking about extending "the streak" to 37. This back half of the schedule, which once looked like a potential table run, looks much more difficult. South Dakota State is playing much better, Southern Utah is improved, NDSU is playing like one of the best five or six teams in the nation, and San Diego is an intriguing game at season's end. The Aggies should get to 37 but it will be more challenging that initially thought.

Florida Atlantic 32 Southern Utah 7 Quick Hits: I expected this game to be a little closer, but to be truthful we didn't know much about the FAU team considering all their games were blowouts to quality competition. FAU proved to be the better team jumping on the T-Birds and not letting up. Southern Utah has to be able to establish some sort of run to win games and they were smothered in Florida this past Thursday. Wes Marshall still had a solid game with 228 total yards, but the Thunderbirds inability to convert 3rd downs (2 of 11) was a huge factor in this game.

Top 25 Ballot

The day has arrived - I now have two Great West teams in my top five. Cal Poly moves up to #3 by virtue of the New Hampshire loss. North Dakota State was #6 in last week's ballot and moved up to #5. My top 5: App State, Montana, Cal Poly, Illinois State, North Dakota State. UC Davis moves from my #18 to #16 based on their win and losses in front of them. If South Dakota State can go on the road and beat Cal Poly next week will be the first week ever that four GWFC teams will be ranked in the top 25.

Great West NFL Draft Report w/ Josh Buchanan

"Well, we are past the halfway point and I have updated grades on the top players in the league. Here is my list of the top players and my list of the top 3 juniors below it: 1. CB Courtney Brown, Cal Poly 6th-PFA 2. WR Tony Kays, UC Davis 7th-PFA 3. OT Elliot Vallejo, UC Davis PFA 4. ILB Kyle Shotwell, Cal Poly PFA 5. RB Kyle Steffes, North Dakota State PFA 6. QB Jon Grant, UC Davis PFA 7. FS Kenny Chicoine, Cal Poly PFA 8. P Neal Bainbridge, South Dakota State PFA 9. WR Joey Hew Len, Southern Utah PFA 10. WR Travis White, North Dakota State

Stock Report
UP

P Neal Bainbridge, South Dakota State His stock has not really risen with pro scouts but he has been solid and he has finally moved into my top 10 this year.

DOWN

WR Travis White, North Dakota State He has not had a very productive year and I was hoping to see him stay healthy, have a productive year, and post all-league type numbers. Right now, he is not on my 1st or 2nd team ballot for All-Great West honors.

TOP JUNIORS

1. OT Mitch Erickson, South Dakota State 2. QB Steve Walker, North Dakota State 3. P Mike Dragosavich, North Dakota State

At this point scouts have not really looked at juniors in the league much, but, these three all have had good careers so far and should be top players at their positions entering the preseason in 2007."

Mid-Season MVP

Since we're just past the halfway point of the season it's time to take a looks at the conference's MVP season to date starting with #6 and counting down to my MVP this far in 2006:

6. Wes Marshall - Marshall has helped completely turn around the T-Birds season. He may have eight picks but he's thrown for nearly 1100 yards, run for another 250 and has an amazing 13 touchdowns. Not many people expected much from Southern Utah this season but Marshall has helped restore success to the Southern Utah Football program.

5. Jon Grant - Grant has the difficulty of playing with high expectations. He's a third year starter in Coach Bob Biggs offensive system. He was a pre-season All-American, and plays for a school with a history of great QB play. His play will always be scrutinized more so than other schools because of those that came before him and performed so well. Grant has had a very solid season: 125-218, 1566 yds, 11 td's, 261 yards passing per game. Considering the competition, the expectations, and the lack of a running game Grant continues to get the job done and do it successfully. Don't be surprised if he has a huge back half of the year.

4. James Noble - Noble's effort against UC Davis helped push his per game average to 100 yards. The sophomore back is averaging 5.5 per carry and has found the end zone three times as well. What's really amazing is that Noble is still as effective as he is given the fact that the opposition in every game is loading up the box and daring the Mustangs to beat them via the pass and he's been nursing a bum ankle.

3. Kyle Steffes - As I've said all year, all this guy does is drop 100-yard games. This season he's got nearly 600 yards in five games averaging 113 per game. He doesn't go for 200+ often but he won't end up with much below 75 yards either. Steffes is as consistent as they come, which has been a huge reason the Bison offense has been so successful this season. Not having the gaudy stats may keep him from being the MVP of the league but no one in their right mind could ever underestimate how important this kid is to the Bison offense.

2. Kyle Shotwell - Shotwell knows all too much about this defense having contributed as the whip linebacker early in his career, then moving over to middle once Jordan Beck departed. Last season he had a standout year and is right back on track to have a huge season as the key cog in the nation's number one defense this season. Thus far this season he has 65 tackles (tied for 17th with 10.5 tackles a game), 10 for loss, and two sacks. Shotwell's size could deter NFL scouts but his speed and instincts may force some team to give him a shot. It's tough not to when you are as productive as he has been throughout his career.

1. Steve Walker - And finally, my MVP season to date is Steve Walker. Walker stats to date thus far: 101- 155, 65%, 1225 yards, 204 ypg, nine td's, one int, 149% efficiency. The 204 yards per game don't stand out as amazing but really they are when you consider the circumstances. Walker is playing in a West Coast offense that prides itself on a power running game, looking to pass second. He has mastered this offense and does so much with his ability in running this passing offense. Without Walker, no way does NDSU beat Ball State. Without Walker, NDSU probably doesn't stand a chance this weekend. His ability to run a passing game predicated on short to medium timing routes has made this Bison offense complete. His talent had been a huge reason the Bison ARE one of the best five teams in the nation. Watching him mature within this Bison system has been fun; it's just too bad this team isn't playoff eligible.

Week 7 Games

Last week things went a little more as expected as a 3-0 week runs my record to 18-11 (.620) This week two conference games highlight the schedule along with North Dakota State traveling to take on an opponent from the Big Ten.

Southern Utah (3-3) at #18 UC Davis (3-3)

A pair of 3-3 teams locks horns at Toomey field this weekend as The Thunderbirds visit the Aggies. The two teams have split the two games they've played as members of the Great West. This week if Southern Utah wants to get back into the winning column it has to start with the ground game, namely Johnny Sanchez and Kyle Coop. In the T-Birds three wins they averaged 220 yards rushing per game. In the four losses, they managed just 147. That number drops to just 103 when you remove the McNeese game (280 yards rushing), which SUU should have won but turned the ball over five times. Look for Southern Utah to try early and often to establish the run with Sanchez and Coop this weekend. That will be a stiff challenge against an Aggie defense that has been pretty stout against the run this season. Last week they held Central Arkansas to just 31 yards. But if SUU looks back a couple games, both Youngstown State and Cal Poly's James Noble did have success running the ball. The T-Birds will need a good push from an offensive line that has improved drastically from a season ago to try to duplicate the success of the Penguins and Mustangs. The Aggies will key on the run, which includes Wes Marshall. Marshall is a dual threat with his legs (308 yards, 4.3 per carry) and the Aggies need to be sure he doesn't beat them on the ground busting loose to get first downs and extend drives. If the Aggies can take away the run it will fall on Marshall's shoulders to move the ball through the air. This is where Marshall has to exploit the Aggies on the outside. As UCD comes into the box to stack up against Sanchez/Coop/Marshall, SUU will see man coverage on the outside. In order to win this game, Marshall has to be successful getting the ball to wide receivers Joey Lew Hen and Larue Burley in those situations. As we've seen this season, though, when the T-Birds are made one-dimensional it's tough for them to be successful on offense. Ideally, the Aggies would like to duplicate last week's formula: slow the run, and let the offense have a few plays through the air. Eventually without a help of a running game, most teams are going to falter: either punt away or make mistakes. Wes Marshall has to change that this week through the air to win this game.

One team, however, that can win games without the help of a running game is UC Davis. Last week they only ran for 98 yards at 3.0 per carry but were able to move the ball all over the field because the passing offense is so dangerous. The UC Davis offense racked up 389 yards last week mainly behind the arm of quarterback Jon Grant, who played very well in the win. Coach Bob Biggs will try as always to establish some sort of run, but up against a pretty solid Thunderbird defense line the room may once again be tough. The Aggies need to continue to use shorts passes and screen plays as their form of running especially as team stuff the "traditional" run. Short passing plays to the backs can be just as effective creating a 2nd and 6 as running the ball up the middle. Last week running backs caught 10 passes for 63 yards. This week though the Aggies will be without the services of running back Alex Garfio, who suffered a leg injury and could be out for the year. The duties will now fall on Marcus Nolan and Demario Warren. As SUU looks to contain the run, the Aggies should continue to use that short game with the backs to keep the defense off balance. Still, if Southern Utah can slow the run its only part A of a two part game plan that has to be successfully executed to stop this offense. The other piece is slowing the receiving tandem of senior All-American Tony Kays (32 catches, 431 yards, 6 td's) and freshman Chris Carter (33 catches, 520, 3 td's). As I've learned through watching these two play, stopping them doesn't come via great coverage. At times, they can be covered but throughout the course of a game they are going to find an opening in the defense. To stop these two it starts with pressuring Jon Grant. If the Thunderbirds defensive line can break through a strong pass blocking Aggies line as well as use blitzes effectively, the key will be to force Grant into quick decisions. If Grant locks into a receiver and is pressured, he can be forced into a mistake with the football. But when he is given time, he'll dice up secondaries. The Thunderbirds strength is their line which is a physical group up front and should provide a challenge for the Aggie offensive line. The winner of that matchup will likely determine who wins this game. At home again this weekend, it's hard to not expect the Aggies offense to have another strong day through the air. And as the Aggies slow the T-Bird rushing game, this weekend's game could well turn into a similar result as a week ago, especially considering the T-Birds play on the road for the fourth consecutive week. UC Davis 28 Southern Utah 10

#9 North Dakota State (6-0) at Minnesota (2-5)

The Bison travel to the Hubert H Humphrey Metrodome to take on the Big Ten's Minnesota Golden Gophers this weekend in the sixth meeting between the teams. The last meeting was in 1937 in which Minnesota spanked NDSU 69-7. According to the Bison game release, there are some initial indications that over 50,000 fans will be in attendance at this weekend's game. The game is a part of ESPN's gameplan.

Minnesota enters this week with two wins and four losses but the quality of those losses are impressive (Cal, Purdue, Michigan, Penn State) as you might expect playing in one of the nation's premiere conferences. The Golden Gophers come into play averaging 375 yards per game. This team has always been a physical football team that leans heavily on the run and does so successfully. Typically they like to come right at you with a zone blocking scheme and let their back Amir Pinnex do the damage. Pinnex averages 93 yards per game at 5.4 per carry. He'll be the guy the Gophers feed early and often to see if the Bison front seven can stand up to the pounding Minnesota wants to deliver. The Bison have size up front but certainly face a talented offensive line, which (although banged up) will provide a sizable challenge to the Bison. NDSU's front line will have to stand tall and keep that line from getting to the second level and getting hats on Joe Mays and Ramon Huber. Those guys have to get to be factor in this game if the North Dakota State defense is to slow the run and keep Minnesota from scoring early and often. In terms of a comparison to Ball State, this team is different in that they don't try to spread you out, but instead come right at you with the run. As much as Ball State wanted to throw the ball Minnesota wants to run it. However, they have a very capable quarterback when it comes to passing the football in Brian Cupito who has some dangerous weapons on the outside. Cupito, who looked lost when he originally took over quarterback duties, has improved drastically over the past season and a half. He's averaging 200 yards passing a game completing 60% of his passes. His top two targets have been the big play Logan Payne and 6'7 tight end Matt Spaeth. Payne is the guy that Cupito likes to go vertical with and Spaeth's size creates mismatches wherever he is on the field. The Bison will have to find a way to cover these guys all afternoon, which will be a challenge. If the Bison can contain the run, they'll be in good shape. And that is the key: slow the run, get after Cupito and knock him around in passing situations. My concern is their ability to slow Payne and Spaeth when the Gophers go play action on 1st or 2nd down and the Bison are in man coverage on the outside. If Minnesota strikes for big plays against the Bison secondary, NDSU will be in trouble. But if they can contain the play action passes, and pressure Cupito they can stay in this game. That's especially true considering that if Cupito comes unglued this offense can unravel. But it's important to hit him early and often and not let the Gophers run game, which feeds that play action pass, dictate the game.

The Bison are actually a lot like Minnesota in that they are a physical team that leads with the power run. They possess a quarterback who doesn't often get rattled, makes smart decisions, and operates the passing game pretty efficiently with a high completion percentage. And for the Bison to win this game Steve Walker and his offensive line has to be at its absolute best this weekend. As much as this offense relies on the run and wants to establish it this weekend with back Kyle Steffes, Minnesota's physical front is going to make the running lanes difficult for the Bison. But what was illustrated against I-A Ball State is that the Bison can throw the ball to win a game and throw it with a lot of success. This week that is the key for them to win this game. Walker needs some time to make his three and five step drops and work his short passing game with receivers Travis White, Kole Heckendorf and tight end Jerimiah Wurzbacher. The leading tacklers on this defense have been Mike Sherels (LB), and Dominic Barber (FS), who will have their noses in on the rushing attack all afternoon. I expect that the Bison will run with moderate spurts of success, but don't know if over the long haul this Bison team can consistently move the ball against the Golden Gopher front seven via the ground. This game will come down to Steve Walker to make smart (but also quick) decisions with the football. If North Dakota State can pass the ball like they did against Ball State they can outscore this Minnesota team. The Bison enter this week 6-0 and ranked among the nation's top ten but this team, although 2-4, is clearly better than any of the other teams they've faced this season. The Bison are playing with confidence but they are going to see a different caliber of team and atmosphere this weekend. Minnesota's offense is going to score points and will have success on the ground and through the air. What really makes me nervous is the Bison secondary giving up the big play on the play action which I fear may happen a couple times this weekend. The chance the Bison have is to outscore Minnesota, which I am just not sure can happen. Walker, Steffes and this offense are potent and will find the end zone a couple times but Minnesota won't lie down after their blowout loss this weekend. They also will score early and often. Minnesota 38 North Dakota State 23

Game of the Week

South Dakota State (3-3) at #4 Cal Poly (5-0) Three weeks ago no one would have thought that this game would be the game of the week, but the Jacks resurgence winning three games in a row has them on a roll. They head to San Luis Obispo this weekend with confidence hoping they can pull one of the seasons biggest upsets against the Mustangs.

Jackrabbits offense vs. Cal Poly defense South Dakota State has their hands full this weekend facing the Cal Poly defense that seems to consistently find a way to help its team win. The Jacks come into play averaging 307 yards per game equally split between the pass (153) and the run (155). Those numbers offensively rank the Jacks 79th nationally. Cal Poly, meanwhile, ranks as the best defense nationally allowing just 202 yards of total offense per game. Looking even deeper they rank first against the pass allowing just 102 per game. But what can't be seen is how well they have set their offense up all season. This Cal Poly team thrives when it has the opposition backed up and always seems to make a big play. Ultimately it results in good field position for an offense that has struggled. Cal Poly has great athletes all over the field on defense and a scheme which makes things difficult know exactly where the pressure is going to come from. So how does SDSU go about scoring against this Mustang defense? First, they can't make mental mistakes - allowing any sort of stupid penalties that put them in long to go situations. They also can't turn the ball over which is basically suicide against this group. And finally, they have to have balance on offense. This Jacks team has an offensive line that has held up despite significant injuries early in the season and has now settled. They have to hold strong against this Mustang front and find a way to open some holes for the Jacks backs, Anthony Watson. Cory Koenig, the other powerful back in this Jacks offense, is not expected to play this weekend which is a blow to the offense. That duo had been pretty solid this season both averaging 5.4 per carry and accounting for 130 rush yards per game. The pressure now falls to Watson, who will have to run well this weekend if this offense is to find the end zone a couple times. With the run, it may well open up some passing lanes for Jacks aerial attack. Cal Poly knows this and will focus primarily on the run looking to force quarterback Andy Kardoes to make plays to win this game. The Mustangs want Kardoes to determine this game, not Watson who is capable of making some big plays.

Mustang offense vs. South Dakota State defense The other side of the ball features a Jackrabbit defense allowing 333 yards to opposing offenses. And while they've been good against the pass allowing just 173 per game, teams have been able to run the ball this season. Thus far, they are allowing 160 per game with a 4.1 per carry average. They've only allowed one back to go for over 100 yards but will face a stiff test in James Noble this weekend that comes into play averaging 100 on the nose. The improvement over the past few weeks along the defensive line has been a huge reason for the Jacks three wins. That line, Jason Bonwell, Mitch Pontrelli, Eric Shroeder, and Danny Batten has to come up big this weekend against this Mustang running attack. There is no doubt that the Mustangs will come right at the Jacks with what they do well, run the ball. This Mustang offense ranks 99th nationally in total offense and have struggled throwing the ball so the key for this defense is making sure Noble doesn't get off to a good start. That's easier said than done. But if they can slow Noble they have a great shot to contain this offense because of their inability to move the ball through the air consistently. There's no question the Coach Steigelmeier will look to force quarterback Matt Brennan to win this game. And while the passing offense has been anemic this Jacks team had better be aware of 6'6 wide receiver Ramses Barden. Quarterback Matt Brennan is only throwing for 122 yards per game but 88 of those yards have gone to Barden. The Cal Poly offense has been pretty basic this season - run Noble, run Noble, run Noble, and then throw it up and let Barden make a play. Barden has 526 yards and four scores and his big frame makes him very difficult to defend. It's imperative that the Jacks corners, Tyler Koch and Brock Gentile, don't get beat for a big play and that, when possible, the Jacks give them help on Barden. If the Jacks keep Barden from making a big play or two, they'll hang right in this game. If Noble gets rolling and Barden makes a couple big plays, watch out.

X-Factor: Andy Kardoes, QB, South Dakota State. When a team goes on the road to play the #4 ranked squad, who possess a terrific defense, it's an understatement to say that flawless quarterback play will be needed to pull out a victory. That onus fall on Jackrabbit Andy Kardoes this week. Kardoes struggled to start the season but has really hit his stride over the past three games, all Jacks wins. The senior captain has completed nearly 59% of his passes throwing for 478 yards, two scores, and adding 131 yards on the ground as well. This week he'll have to be just as good, and likely, even better. The key for Kardoes, and really any quarterback that faces this defense, is not to press. Cal Poly by the nature of their confusing schemes and athletes on defense are going to make some plays that will hurt the offense. But in those situations when faced with 2nd and 3rd and long the Jacks QB can't force things and try to do too much. Kardoes was trying to do too much early in the year and struggled. If he gets caught up in trying to dig his team out of a tough situation, he'll make the mistakes the Mustangs are adept at forcing. Take what the defense gives you, punt the ball away, and wait for an opportunity to open up. If Andy Kardoes forces the action this weekend, he'll throw three picks and the Mustangs will run away with this game.

Key Matchup: Jacks left tackle Preston Crumly vs. Mustang RDE Ryan Shotwell. Ryan Shotwell is proving to be just as menacing to opposing offenses as his older brother Kyle. And the younger Shotwell is someone the Jacks have to account for all night long this weekend. Shotwell from his end spot is 4th on the team in tackles, but more impressively has seven tackles for loss, five sacks, and leads the team with ten quarterback hits. It's up to SDSU left guard Preston Crumly to try to contain Shotwell. Crumly will have his hands will this weekend especially considering that the Mustang defensive line has been so good that the Jacks can't consistently double the same guy. But when SDSU has the opportunity for a tight end or back to help out on Shotwell it will be important to do so. If Crumly can do a decent job against Shotwell it will go a long way toward helping this offense have a chance against this talented defense. If Shotwell gets rolling early, he could rack up some big numbers by night's end.

The Roundtable says:

Kent Schmidt, I-aa.org (3-2): "After South Dakota State opened with the embarrassing loss at home to DIII Wisconsin-LaCrosse, no one probably would have expected that their record going into this game would be 3-3 but the Jackrabbits have won three games in a row including road victories at McNeese State and Nicholls State. San Luis Obispo, however, is a much tougher road trip for the SDSU and will play the toughest defense they have seen so far this year. I like the Mustangs in a rather low scoring affair, Cal Poly 20 SDSU 10."

Jeff Kolpack, Fargo Forum (2-3): "I like the way the Jacks have resurrected their season, but it's a tough task to win in SLO. Defense wins championships and I'm still going with Cal Poly in the Great West. Cal Poly 16, SDSU 6."

Mike Mirer, Davis Enterprise (3-2): "South Dakota's State surge is a nice story, but it was accomplished against three Southland teams. With the way the Southland has started the year, that league ought to be forced to do without its auto-bid this year. I expect SDSU to validate those last three wins, with another strong showing, although it won't be enough. Cal Poly will continue to skate close to the edge this week, but it won't fall off. Poly 21, SDSU 20."

The Bottom Line: After what this Cal Poly team showed me in coming back against Southern Utah and UC Davis, it's hard to go against this group. But remember, this team hasn't been blowing anyone out and I don't expect that to change again this weekend especially with the way this offense has played all season Even if Cal Poly can only muster 10-20 points this Saturday, the defense will hold the Jacks to less. This defense has been so great leaving the offense in good field position and creating turnovers. I expect that the Mustangs defense will frustrate the Jacks backs this weekend and put the pressure on Kardoes to deliver big plays in 3rd and long situations. In much the way they did to Wes Marshall, they'll force him some mistakes, likely interceptions. Still, the Jacks are going to hang around and if they can get a big play on defense or special teams an upset is not completely out of the realm of possibility. For now, though, it's awfully tough to go against this defense and I wont this weekend. Cal Poly 20 South Dakota State 16