The Bottom Line Archives

The Bottom Line - Week 7

By Chris Kelly

 

There they were on the doorstep. Southern Utah had moved 70 yards to the Cal Poly four yard line, and were trailing by seven. It appeared the Thunderbirds were ready to tie the game and send it into overtime. Then Karl Ivory became the hero. The senior cornerback was covering SUU's Jerome Eason who appeared to snatch a Casey Rehrer pass for a score. Ivory, however, wrestled the ball away from Eason clinching the Mustangs 5^th win in as many games.

 

The game had been back and forth all evening as the Mustangs got out to an early lead behind a 42-yard Jonah Russell touchdown catch and a short Adam Martinez run. As SUU trailed 14-3, Casey Rehrer went to work and rallied his team. The Thunderbird quarterback threw two touchdown passes in the final minutes of the half to give SUU its first and only lead. Cal Poly, trailing for the first time in the second half, blocked a punt which set up the go ahead touchdown. The score came via the legs of Anthony Garnett, the Cal Poly quarterback making his first collegiate start. A Byungwoo Yoon field goal extended the lead to the final margin of seven.

 

CK's Take: The Mustangs just find a way to get it done. Last week as I pondered over my pick in this game I knew a couple things were for sure. The Cal Poly offense has not been very good this year, but the defense and special teams have been phenomenal. Guess who delivered the biggest plays on Saturday night? The first was a huge special teams play as James Pryor blocked Jerome Ward's punt to give Cal Poly the ball in ridiculous position at the SUU four-yard line. That led to the touchdown that gave the Mustangs the lead they would not relinquish. The second play was Ivory's defensive game winner in the end zone. There's something about this team. When they need a play, someone always steps up to make it. At 5-0, the thought of playoffs has to start creeping into the Mustangs heads.

 

As for the offense, the Mustangs really weren't that bad. They were by no means terrific but they did just what they needed to do- not lose the game. They made a few plays to put points on the board, and let their special teams and defense make plays when they really needed it. I just keep wondering if this team can come up with a big drive if they ever need one?

 

The Cal Poly defense made the ultimate play in the end of the game, but did allow a season high 386 yards to Southern Utah. Not only did they nearly allow 400 yards, but SUU was the first team to surpass the 300-yard mark on offense, a testament to the talent of this offense. I questioned whether Rehrer could put up big numbers against this Cal Poly defense, and Rehrer proved me wrong totaling 310 yards of offense. Again, maybe Southern Utah fared better? This team has had some hard luck. They drop to 2-3 but could easily be 4-1, or 5-0. Think back to the three losses - a fumble deep in Sac State territory late in the fourth cost the T-birds one game. Stephen F. Austin had to hit a 53-yard field goal as time expired to beat SUU just a couple weeks back. Finally, the Karl Ivory interception on Saturday was the third tough loss where the T-Birds were right there. There will be no easy games against Southern Utah.

 

In the other Great West conference game, South Dakota State stunned North Dakota State 24-21 in 38^th Beef Bowl in Brookings, SD. The two teams traded blows all game long with the Jacks striking first on an Anthony Watson one-yard touchdown. The Bison responded with back-to-back scores via their dangerous ground duo, Cinque Chapman and Kyle Steffes. A touchdown for each team left the game in favor of the Bison at 21-14. After a Parker Douglass field goal, the Jacks trailed by four. They stopped NDSU and their final drive started on their own 20-yard line. From there quarterback Brad Nelson engineered a beautiful 14-play, 80-yard drive, which culminated in a touchdown reception by wide receiver Chris Moliter with just 39 seconds to play. Defensively, Chris Coauette led the Jacks with 15 tackles, while Craig Dahl registered 12 for the Bison.

 

CK's Take: The close battle I expected came to fruition. However, the team I expected to come out on top did not.  Hats off to South Dakota State, who continues to impress week after week. Coach Steigelmeier and his staff have done such a great job with this team. I don't want to harp on the Jacks first game of the year, but I have to. This doesn't even seem close to the team that played in Davis in week one. The Jackrabbits showed a lot of heart on Saturday night in a come from behind win that moves them to 4-2 on the season, as well as gives the school its first Great West Football Conference win. If you want the ball in one person's hands with under three minutes to go, and a chance to win the game, who would you want? It would be hard to vote against Brad Nelson, who orchestrated the game-winning drive. Twice Nelson had to convert 4^th downs, and did so with big completions to sustain the game-winning drive. The interesting part is that Nelson actually traded quarterback reps with Andy Kardoes, a red-shirt freshman. Kardoes is a great athlete, who brings a lot to the offense, especially with his ability to run with the ball. Nelson is still "the guy" in South Dakota State, but nonetheless it is interesting that the Jacks have already started to acclimate the youngster into the offense with Nelson still running the show. We'll see exactly how the Jacks play it against Montana State in two weeks.

 

A big key to the game had to be Anthony Watson, who ran for 133 yards for the Jacks. He ran for over 100 in the first half, which really helped to open up the passing game for Nelson as the Bison had to focus more on Watson. The Bison bottled him up in the second half, which really slowed the Jacks offense until the final drive. As for the Bison, there really isn't a specific area to point to as a reason for the loss. They pretty much matched the Jacks statistically and played a pretty solid game. In the end it was just the Jacks who made a few more plays. If these teams could play 10 times, fans would be hard pressed to convince me they wouldn't split down the middle.

 

The other Great West winner was the UC Davis Aggies who smashed D-II Western Oregon, 54-2. The Aggies defense didn't allow a point for the second time this season, as the Wolves registered a safety from a bad snap on a punt. The defense only allowed a total of 118 yards, including minus-2 rushing. Offensively the Aggies tallied over 460 yards of offense led by quarterback Jon Grant 220 and two touchdowns. John Quinn was the leading rusher with 90 yards, while Kevin Freeman caught 4 passes for 74 yards and a score.

 

Quick hits: The final score is indicative of the talent, and especially speed differential between the Aggies and the D-II Wolves. I don't think anyone expected anything else but a blowout. The easiest game on a tough schedule came at just the right time. The Aggies were able to rest a couple players who were nursing injuries, and were also able to get their starters out early. Now they should be fully healthy heading into this week's game against No. 10-ranked Stephen F. Austin. This game will be one of the better matchups around I-AA this week, and one I'll go in great detail a little later.

 

The final game of the past weekend saw Northern Colorado visit Southeastern Louisiana. The Bears continued their struggles as they lost their 5^th consecutive game, 26-13 in a battle played mostly in torrential downpour. The Bears were tied with the Lions late in the third at 13 before 13 unanswered points finished off UNC. Vincent Jackson had another strong game with six grabs for 138 and a score. Andre Wilson also did his part on the ground going over 100 yards for the 4^th consecutive game.

 

Quick Hits: The Bears didn't make the crucial mistakes that have cost them over the last few weeks. But what they were unable to do was slow down the Lion pass rush, which sacked quarterback Tony Christensen NINE times. Six of them by Damien Huran, who had a career day. When Christensen did have time to throw the ball, he wasn't very effective as the senior quarterback was just 7 of 23. Things are not going to get any easier with slew of difficult games remaining. Is it possible that the pre-season league favorite could only win one game?

 

GWFC Items of Interest

 

*Poll Watch- The South Dakota State Jackrabbits were rewarded with their big win over the Bison with their first ever I-AA ranking, as Don Hansen has the Jacks ranked 25^th. Here are the rest of the poll rankings:

            - Sports Network: Cal Poly (9), UC Davis (21)

            - ESPN/USA Today: Cal Poly (8), UC Davis (21)

-Don Hansen- Cal Poly (11), UC Davis (20), South Dakota State (25), North            Dakota State (30)

 

 

Week 7 Games

Week 7 arrives, and with it four more games involving GWFC teams, including one conference game. South Dakota State gets a bye before a tough road trip to Montana State, but all the other teams are in action. All three non-conference games will be tough games, but the interesting part of week 7 is that all three of those games are home game for the Great West teams.  We haven't had a chance to see many GWFC teams play tough games at home, so we'll see how the home field treats each team. As for last week's picks, the first week I'd like to forget, as I went a mediocre 2-2. On the season, things are still very respectable at 21-5 (.807 ). Here we go...

 

Florida Atlantic @ Northern Colorado

At some point, fans have to start feeling bad for the Bears. The schedule was bad enough when looking at it back in August. Now with teams such as Sam Houston State, South Dakota State, UC Davis, and Cal Poly are all improved over last season, it seems as if someone has it out for the Bears. Oh, and let's not forget about Florida Atlantic, this weekend's opponent, maybe the toughest of all the remaining games. FAU is in its first season as a provisional I-A, and is 4-0. Two of those wins are very, very impressive wins against bowl teams from a year ago; Hawaii, and North Texas. What makes it more impressive- both were on the road, where FAU will be this week when they visit Greeley. Last season UNC lost a tough game to Owls, 21-19. This season the two teams have gone in different directions as the Owls returned 20 players from last season's team.

 

Jared Allen who is averaging 243 yards per game with a 63 percent completion rate leads the pro-set offense. The Owls also have a solid runner in Doug Parker who has 376 yards and three scores on the season. The Owls are a balanced team, which may create problems for the Bears, who have struggled at times this season stopping teams who can run and throw equally as well. As well as FAU has thrown the ball and played this season, the Bears will really need one of the best all around defensive effort from everyone to contain this Owl defense. Two weeks ago, the Bears stymied the UC Davis Aggies in the second half with a variety of blitzes and pressure, something that the Bears have to do this weekend to have a chance. They'll need to create some turnovers if they want to keep this close.

 

The other side of the ball is where the Bears possess the potential to score points in bunches, but also their biggest question in Jekyll and Hyde quarterback Tony Christensen. With running back Andre Wilson and Walter Payton award candidate Vincent Jackson, this offense always has a chance to score with teams, but needs its signal caller Christensen and the offensive line to play well. Christensen reverted to some mediocre play last weekend and the offense really struggled. The goal this week is to run the ball with Wilson as much as possible and keep this FAU offense off the field. The more Wilson can run, the longer the Bears can stay in this game and gain confidence. But Christensen possesses many of the cards this weekend. If he shows up and plays well, the Bears can hang around. He'll need some help from his line though, which has allowed 15 sacks the last two weeks to UC Davis and Southeastern Louisiana. This stat must be cleaned up in a hurry, as the defense will need to keep an eye on senior Chris Laskowski. The linebacker is the leader of this defense and has three sacks on the year. This Bear offense can surprise anyone, especially if taken lightly based on their 1-5 record, but I wonder where the state of mind of this team truly is. It's been a difficult season, and beating a team of this caliber, without playing a near perfect game seems unrealistic. FAU has won each of its previous four games by exactly one touchdown, this week that will change. Florida Atlantic 38, Northern Colorado 20

 

Texas State @ #9 Cal Poly

Texas State travels to Cal Poly to take on the Mustangs in another in a long line of difficult games for the Bobcats. Texas State comes into play having played a very tough schedule; so don't let their 2-3 record fool you. The Bobcats I-AA opponents currently have a 26-13 record, tied for the best with Villanova. They've already played two I-A teams, losing by seven points to both Baylor and Florida Atlantic. TSU also lost to nationally-ranked Appalachian State by seven this season. Now they face a touch Cal Poly bunch on the road, and based on the competition up to this point, Texas State has to be considered a very difficult challenge for the Mustangs.

 

Back to lead the Bobcats offense is speedy quarterback Barrack Nealy, who runs his second offense in as many years. Last season, TSU threw the ball all over the field in a very wide-open "tripleshoot", no-huddle offense under Manny Matsakis. Out is Matsakis, and in is new coach, David Bailiff. With the entrance of the former Texas Christian defensive coordinator comes a new offense focused more on running the ball. The Bobcats feature more a multiple offense, rather than the pass happy offense of a year ago. They traditionally feature one back, but quite often go to a two back set, and are not afraid to spread teams out with no backs, and four or five wide receivers. While switching and adapting to a new offense is never easy, the Bobcats do benefit greatly from returning most of the skill players from last season. Quarterback Barrack Nealy, a transfer from Houston, is the leader of that group having throw for 459 yards and rushing for another 211. Nealy has missed two games with injury, but returned against Appalachian State. He's a decent passer, but even better with his feet. So when coupled with halfback Terrell Harris, they make for a dangerous rushing duo. Harris has nearly 400 yards, seven touchdowns and a 5.9-yard per carry average. If the Bobcats were still running that tripleshoot with all the athleticism on the field, it would make for a very interesting matchup with the Cal Poly defense. But an offense predicated on running the ball plays right into the Mustangs hands. The one thing to point out is that the multi-faceted Casey Rehrer had a big game last week. Nealy is a lot like Rehrer, with a little more athletic ability. Cal Poly will need to focus in on stopping the run, and containing Nealy. If Texas State is allowed to run, Nealy becomes very dangerous with his arm. If the run is slowed, Cal Poly will win this game by a couple touchdowns.

 

The Cal Poly offense played a little better last week, but by no means blew anyone's socks off. Coach Rich Ellerson surprised me last week by giving Anthony Garnett the start at quarterback this past Saturday. I talked last week about the quarterback carousel in San Luis, but had considered it really a two horse race between Cordel Webb and John Mende. However, Coach Ellerson went with Garnett last week, who played decently in his first start. His stats weren't all that impressive (9-23, with 2 picks) but he made some big plays when the offense needed it. His play may have been enough to warrant another start, but no announcement has been made. We'll see who takes the field on Saturday. Either way, whoever gets the nod will be asked to spark a team that puts up just 248 yards of offense. The bright spot last week was Jonah Russell who has been quiet most of the season. He only caught three passes but made the most of them going over 100 yards. The one person we haven't heard nearly enough from is Geno Randle, the talented back for Cal Poly. He hasn't had a big game in a couple of weeks, and this may not be his breakout week either against a strong defense up front allowing just 2.6 per rush. Where Cal Poly must exploit the Texas State defense is with the pass, where the Bobcats allow over 230 yards a game. However, this isn't exactly the way Cal Poly wants to attack TSU. Coach Ellerson will throw the ball, but won't be risky with in as to keep his quarterback from making a bad mistake. Thus if the run game struggles, it could be another tough offensive week. I really believe this is a danger game this week for Cal Poly. If they make many mistakes, this could be their first loss. I haven't doubted this team yet, but this game appears troublesome. Good thing they Mustangs have that defense everyone should fear. Home field and Jordan Beck will lead the way in a closer game than most people expect. Cal Poly 21, Texas State 20

 

Southern Utah @ North Dakota State

Well the Southern Utah football team sure didn't get much home cooking last week. After starting with four games on the road, they returned home only to lose to Cal Poly. This week they're back racking up the frequent flyer miles as they travel to North Dakota to take on conference foe North Dakota State. Both teams come off a loss, and each is looking for its first conference win, as the teams are a combined 0-3.

 

The Bison offense looks to the most potent Great West duo this weekend to lead the way. This team continues to lead the conference in rushing offense and it will be no surprise that the Bison will need both Kyle Steffes, and Cinque Chapman to continue to run the ball well. These two are the engine that makes the NDSU offense work with 180 rushing yards per game. One of the reasons this duo is so strong is fantastic line play up front. This group will be challenged Saturday against a very good front seven for Southern Utah. The front four does a good job of tying up the offensive line to let their studs at linebacker make the plays time after time. The T-Birds three leading tacklers are their linebackers, as all rank in the top 16 in tackles in the conference. The offensive line has to get some blocks on Nick DiPadova, Marques Harris and Mike Overly or this run game will be slowed. Who wins this battle will go a long way in determining the winner. If the Bison run game is contained, the offense will likely go stagnant. Tony Stauss, the NDSU quarterback, had another fairly solid game last weekend. Against Southern Utah he'll need to be better. Stauss hasn't played that badly over the past couple weeks, but he also hasn't made the big plays this offense really needs. Against this tough defense, the Bison need to take a few chances to stretch out the field. They have the speed on the edges to make things happen, and it might be a good idea to attack the Thunderbirds deep early. We know Stauss can effectively run the short to medium passing game, but the Bison have been missing the big play down the field. With two Great West losses, the Bison really can't afford another conference loss to keep their fading championship hopes alive. I've been against it the past few weeks, but I wonder if Stauss struggles, does Coach Craig Bohl look to freshman Steve Walker? Walker was such a sparkplug earlier in the season, and if, and only IF, Stauss struggles badly, this might be the opportunity to give the youngster a shot!

 

The North Dakota State defense has put up some impressive numbers. NDSU comes into the game only allowing 283 yards and 13 points a game. This week they are in for a major challenge, though. When you look at the Bison schedule they really haven't faced an explosive offense, yet. They faced Northern Colorado, who certainly has power, but during a struggling time early in the season. Valparaiso and Montana Tech were rollovers, while Carson-Newman and Nicholls State were option teams who didn't pose much of a threat. Perhaps the best offense was the South Dakota State team the Bison faced last weekend; well until now. The Bison now face the dangerous Southern Utah offense, fresh off a very impressive statistical outing versus Cal Poly's defense. Cal Poly, by the way, has even better defensive numbers than NDSU, against much better offensive competition, and SUU still rolled up good numbers. It all starts and ends with Rehrer, who has proven that game after game he will put up 300 total yards. I've talked about Rehrer's ability to run and how dangerous it makes this group, but his passing is just as good. He's completing 68 percent of his passes, with a 3:1 touchdown to interception ratio. Now it's up to the Bison to do what no one else has been able to do, slow the senior signal caller. The Bison will have to bring pressure a majority of the time and force Rehrer into some quick decisions. Let the corners play on islands and stack the box. The Bison will have to take some chances in getting to Rehrer, forcing him to throw early and making sure when it breaks down he doesn't take off. NDSU could really use a big game out of their front four, who has been pretty solid all season. The more pressure that group can apply; the less they need to bring extra on blitzes. Craig Dahl, the talented Bison safety, seems to find the ball more times than not. He'll play a big role this weekend, as the Bison need to have him around the line of scrimmage to help contain Rehrer, and the running game all day. The way that Anthony Watson ran last week, however, Southern Utah has to like their chances. On paper this is a great match up, but in the end I think the Bison will have a tough time stopping this Southern Utah team. The T-Birds have proven they can go on the road and win tough games. Rehrer will rack up his yards, which also means that SUU will score moving the ball in the air and on the ground. The hope is that the Bison can score with the T-Birds. The way the offense played last week against the Jacks leads me to believe they will struggle against a quicker SUU defense. The Bison are tough in the Fargo Dome, but Southern Utah is just plain tough. Southern Utah 31, North Dakota State 20 

 

Game of the Week

#10 Stephen F. Austin @ #21 UC Davis

 

Trends: This is the first meeting between the Aggies and Lumberjacks, as both teams enter the week ranked in both the Sports Network (media) and ESPN/USA Today (coaches) polls. UC Davis enters this week's play undefeated at 5-0 for the first time since 2000, and one of only four remaining unbeaten teams. The others are Jacksonville State, Harvard, and the Great West's own, Cal Poly. Last week Stephen F. Austin fell from the ranks of the unbeaten losing to transitional I-A Florida International, 31-24. SFA is a member of the six-team Southland conference. The Great West plays each of these six teams at some point throughout this season.

 

Lumberjack offense vs. Aggies Defense

Stephen F. Austin travels to Davis and with them bring a great deal of athleticism and a big time running game. The biggest challenge for the Aggies is arguably the most impactful Divison I-A transfer from last season. Derek Farmer, who led Texas A&M in rushing two seasons in a row, is averaging 96 yards per game and 4.6 yards every time he touches the ball.  He's battled some injuries, (hip pointer) but should be fully healthy this week. The main focus of the Lumberjacks is to run the ball with Farmer, and use their power running game to control the clock and wear down the defense. SFA also has a talented quarterback in Michael Williams. Williams is averaging 158 yards per game with a 58% completion percentage. Williams passing may not be the first concern to the defense as his passing skills are decent compared to a Jon Grant or Brad Nelson, plus he tends to lock in on his receivers. Where Williams can burn the Aggies is with the run. When things break down, he can take off and pick up yardage in chunks. The Lumberjacks also run designed plays for the senior quarterback, so look for some QB draws, and tackles leads come Saturday. They run a lot of one back sets, but will mix in plenty of two back. The Lumberjacks will even occasionally spread out the field with 4 wide outs, and run enough option that the Aggies must prepare for it. The receiving threat really comes from Tony Tompkins, who is one of the best athletes on the team, and can beat the opposition with his quickness. He also returned punts and kickoffs, averaging over 114 all-purpose yards per game. This season Tompkins has been more of a possession receiver catching 25 balls for 12 per grab. However, he can beat corners deep so the Aggies will need to lock him down as the No. 1 receiver. Defensively, the Aggies biggest goal is all focused on stopping the run, which again comes from two different positions.

 

Aggie offense vs. Lumberjack Defense

The Aggies offense enters the game with a ton of numbers to scare the opposition. They've proven when they are clicking they can score on anyone and pretty much at will. Quarterback Jon Grant has great numbers with over 1300 yards, 63 percent completion rate and 12 touchdowns. They have two capable backs, who both feature different styles of running, and a number of talented, big play capability, wide receivers. The offensive line is solid, and has done a good job for the most part this season. They even have a under used, but very talented tight end. However, there may be a chink in the Aggies armor, which will be the biggest key to the game in this matchup. If you look back to the five quarters in which the Aggies struggled the most, there is a common theme. In both the second halves of the Weber State and Northern Colorado game, as well as the first quarter of the Western Oregon game, the opposition blitzed, and blitzed a ton. A ton as in almost every play. In all those situations, except the WOU game, the Aggies struggled to make some of the adjustments. It's not coincidence that, in those five quarters, the Aggies scored 10 points. In the other 15 quarters, the Aggies are averaging 14 points per quarter. Stephen F Austin only has three sacks, as typically they like to sit in a two deep base defense, but having seen film of the Aggies, Coach Mike Santiago will have no choice but to come after Jon Grant and UCD. If Grant is given any kind of time, he will carve up the Lumberjack defense. It really comes down to the Aggies offensive line, and backs to help pick up the blitz, and Jon Grant to recognize what the Lumberjacks are doing and hit the hot read. Expect lots of different looks form the Lumberjacks, which means one on one coverage for some of those talented wide receivers. If there two guys making more noise than anyone else, it will be Jeremy Davis, and Eric Robinson. These two linebackers are the big playmakers on defense with 99 tackles, 11 of which have gone from loss.  

 

Key Matchup: Stephen F. Austin Offensive line vs. Aggies defensive front seven.

The Lumberjack offensive line is big and strong, but not the quickest bunch. They are led by second team pre-season Southland conference picks Matt Hoelscher, and Brendan Flannery. Together with left tackle Larron Singleton, the three have combined for 52 starts. The Aggies will need to use their speed against offensive line, and the entire front seven must swarm to the ball, as it will likely take more than one person to take down the powerful Farmer. The Aggies will have to rely on two of their big studs along the line, Pila Fatukala, and Jake Mossawir, as well as the linebackers, to make a living in the backfield. They can't afford to let Farmer get into the open field, where he'll pull away from the defenders. The Ags also have to keep one eye on Williams, as he'll burn the defense if caught out of position. The Aggies comes into play having defended the run well, allowing just 86 yards per game. 

 

X Factor: Special Team, Turnover, and Penalties.

When two teams so close in talent meet, it's typically the little things that decide a game. Each team has their strengths and weaknesses within three aforementioned areas, and whichever group makes the biggest special teams plays, and commits the fewest mistakes will be in a great position to win. As far as turnovers go, the Aggies have fumbled six times, losing five, which isn't terrible. SFA, on the other hand, has had trouble fumbling all season long with 13, having lost eight of them. With penalties, the big problem lies with UCD. The Aggies have been averaging an alarming 10+ per game. They have typically been of the holding and false start variety, but can quickly kill momentum of a drive. In the special teams areas, each team gets a nod in a specific area. The Aggies feature a scary return game with the #1 punt returner in the nation in Jesse Oliva. Oliva is averaging over 23 per return, with two scores. Kevin Freeman, and Ryan Ramey lead the way returning kickoffs combining for 33 yards per return on 8 attempts. On the other side of the ball, SFA's kicker and punter were both all-conference selections. Kicker Ryan Rossner is a deadly weapon. He's 3 for 4 on kicks over 50 in his career, including a game winner in the final seconds from 53 yards away against Southern Utah. Keep note of these three areas on Saturday, as one will certainly play a major role in the outcome of the game.

 

 

The Roundtable says:

Kent Schmidt, I-AA.org: (4-1) "Something has to give as far as trends go in this game. 
Only one of the Aggies wins has been close (31-29 win at Weber State), while only one 
of the Lumberjacks wins has been a blowout (30-10 Henderson State). I think that this 
will be a very close game so with more close game experience, I will take the Lumberjacks 
by a field goal. Stephen F. Austin 24, UC Davis 21"

Jeff Kolpack, Fargo Forum: (4-1)  "Davis is showing people it should have made the Division I move a decade ago. Aggies are tough at home. UC Davis 27, SFA 20."

 

Chris Solari, Argus Leader: (5-0) "Catching a team as good as SFA a week after a loss is sometimes like swatting at a hornets' nest with a baseball bat while not wearing any clothes. In other words, a world of hurt usually awaits. Not so for the Aggies, who have enjoyed three 50-plus point performances so far this year. This easily is UC Davis's toughest test to date, but they've easily got the best combination of powerful offense and stingy defense the Lumberjacks have faced all year. UC Davis 30, Stephen F. Austin 17"

 

Mike Mirer, Davis Enterprise: (5-0) "The Aggie defense's soul-crushing performance against Western Oregon will be difficult to repeat, but the unit will have to come close if UCD is to beat Stephen F. Austin. A bruising Stephen F. Austin ground game, led by Texas A&M transfer Derek Farmer, couldn't do much against Florida International, whose defensive front is bigger than UCD's. The Aggies are fast all over the field and they swarm to the ball well. If, and that's a big if, they can slow Farmer they have a chance. UCD's offense has proven susceptible to stagnation when teams consistently apply pressure, but SFA has just three sacks in five games. I'm taking SFA because of its 34 more scholarships, its excellent running back and to avoid charges of homerism. But this one will be close and could very easily go the other way. SFA 31, UC Davis 28."

 

Bottom Line: This week's game marks the biggest challenge since the UC Davis Aggies left the D-II ranks and moved up to their current I-AA transitional status. They host a team ranked among the nation's top 10, with a chance to make a statement to the rest of I-AA that they not only deserve to be ranked among the best teams, but that they plan to be there for a long time to come. This Aggie team has all the weapons to give everyone on their schedule fits but will be challenged by a very athletic Stephen F Austin team this weekend. The Aggies have faced three quality running backs this year (Anthony Watson, Nick Chournos and Andre Wilson) and held two of three under their season average per carry. Now their toughest task lies ahead with Farmer, and quarterback Michael Williams. The Aggies defense will make some big plays, and Farmer will return the favor with a few significant plays himself. The key will be the Aggies containing Williams from busting loose, or beating them with the pass, which their quickness on defense should allow them to do. SFA is going to score some points, but where the game will be won and lost is on the other side of the ball. SFA will be force to blitz, and blitz often from every angle to try to slow the Aggies juggernaut. Given the time to prepare and expect it, the Aggies will have a couple drives of stagnation, but should be able to move the ball and rack up the yards, and points. Coach Bob Biggs, who is excellent at exploiting the opposition's weaknesses on then field, and ability to make adjustments, will have this team ready for the Lumberjacks blitz. Stephen F Austin is good, but they haven't seen an offense as talented as the Aggies yet. I like the Ags in a close one at home. UC Davis 31, Stephen F Austin 24

 

Questions and/or Comments? Email Chris @ gwfcfootball@hotmail.com